Two west coast powerhouses will square off in the Elite Eight as the USC Trojans get set to take on the undefeated Gonzaga Bulldogs at Lucas Oil Stadium. Gonzaga is just three wins away from pulling off the perfect season capped off by a national championship. They get their biggest test yet against a USC team that is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in their last seven games coming in. The Zags have been bet down to single digits, but will they have enough left in the tank to pull off yet another double digit victory against the Trojans? It’s time to continue our NCAA odds series and make a USC-Gonzaga prediction and pick.
Here is how the sportsbooks have set the opening USC-Gonzaga odds:
NCAA Odds: USC-Gonzaga Odds
USC Trojans +8.5 (-110)
Gonzaga Bulldogs -8.5 (-110)
Over 153 Points (-11o)
Under 153 Points (-110)
Why USC Could Cover The Spread
The USC Trojans are coming off of a resounding 82-68 win against the Oregon Ducks in the Sweet Sixteen. The victory secured USC's first Elite Eight appearance since 2001 and they now seek their first trip to the Final Four since 1954. The Trojans have dominated the tournament this far behind great defensive energy and the size advantage they possess over the field. In three games, USC has held Drake and Kansas to just 29% shooting and Oregon to 37% shooting from the field.
Pac-12 Player of the Year Evan Mobley has been the catalyst, averaging a double double in tournament play. Mobley has put up 12.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game in three commanding victories. He and the Trojans will look to exploit the lone weakness in Gonzaga's game. The Zags have been bit by the turnover bug in the tournament as they've committed at least 10 turnovers in each of their first three games. USC has a chance to win this game if they continue to get key contributions down the line and stellar play from the Mobley brothers.
Why Gonzaga Could Cover The Spread
We haven't seen a team quite as good as this Gonzaga team since Anthony Davis' Kentucky team back in 2012. Gonzaga has continued their regular season dominance and now sit just three wins away from perfection. They haven't had to sweat much as each of their first three tournament wins have come by double digits. The average margin of victory is 25.7 points per game. The Bulldogs have controlled the glass in the tournament, out-rebounding opponents by a whopping 35 boards.
For a team that possesses three All-Americans, one was certainly going to stand out in the tournament. That man has been Drew Timme. Timme has been stellar for the Zags, putting up 30 points and 13 boards in the win against Oklahoma and 22 points and six rebounds against Creighton. Look for Timme and the Bulldogs to play physical basketball down low to control the boards and force USC to the line. The Trojans are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation, hitting just 64.3% of their attempts from the stripe. Last year's Gonzaga team was 31-2 and ready to make a run before the tournament was ultimately cancelled. This team has unfinished business.
Final USC-Gonzaga Prediction & Pick
This is a tough one to call. Gonzaga has covered double digit spreads all season long, but hasn't faced an opponent quite like the Trojans yet. Line movement suggests that the public is leaning USC against this spread. Recent history suggests that Gonzaga should blow them out of the water, just like everyone else. For these reason's, I'm avoiding the side. I like the under in this spot. I think that the Trojans big bodies matchup well against the Zags and both teams play lock down defense. The total has continued to drop. I think this game will be played at a frantic pace for a bit out of the gate and USC's inability to hit free throws will be the difference.
FINAL PICK: Under 153 (-110)
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