It's finally here. The New England Patriots begin the 2022 regular season on Sunday against a division rival.
New England made the trek down to South Beach earlier this week to prepare for its matchup against the Miami Dolphins to help acclimate to the weather. While the Dolphins are a usual opponent for the Patriots, the 2022 version features a few unfamiliar faces.
Here are four bold predictions for the Patriots as they take on the Dolphins in Mike McDaniel's first game as NFL coach:
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4. Kendrick Bourne gets involved
One of the developing stories throughout Patriots training camp and the preseason was the disappearance of Kendrick Bourne. The receiver had a quiet camp, having several practices in which he failed to record multiple receptions throughout team drills.
Not only did he have an unproductive camp on the field, Bourne might have also been in the doghouse for the final weeks of the preseason. An equipment issue and later escalating a fight ended Bourne's day in one joint practice against the Panthers before suspiciously missing the game against them later in the week.
Bourne slowly worked his way back with the starters though during the final week of the preseason. He even recorded a fourth-down reception against the Raiders, too.
It's part of the reason why I think he'll have a notable performance in Week 1. It's tough to think that the Patriots will shut out a receiver that had 800 receiving yards and was one of Mac Jones' favorite targets last season.
In addition, Miami has one of the best outside corners in the game in Xavien Howard. New England can force a mismatch by using Bourne in the slot, allowing him to use his speed which the new streamlined offense is supposed to do.
3. Patriots slow down Tyreek Hill, but not the supporting cast
The Dolphins' big offseason acquisition has actually had some good performances against the Patriots in the regular season, recording 401 receiving yards and five touchdowns in four matchups.
However, Hill also had a quiet game against New England, too. In the 2018 AFC Championship Game, he recorded just one catch on three targets with Jonathan Jones covering him for much of that game.
Four years later, Jonathan Jones is the only corner still on the Patriots that played in that game. He's also seen an increased role in the preseason, playing on the boundary along with playing in the slot. Ideally, he'd be the guy to get the Hill assignment.
Outside of Hill though, the Dolphins return Jaylen Waddle after a standout rookie season and brought in Cedrick Wilson from the Cowboys. New England's corners either lack experience or haven't proven much in their current roles while both Waddle and Wilson fit perfectly in Miami's new offensive scheme that allows receivers to gain yards after the catch.
Jaylen Waddle practiced today without a sleeve on right leg that he’s worn while sitting out practice much of the last 2 1/2 weeks.
Mike McDaniel indicated he would be limited in practice but he noted he’s “very, very, very confident” will play Sunday vs. Patriots. pic.twitter.com/XmDoJX3QTS
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) September 7, 2022
Tua Tagovailoa's strength has also been accuracy in the intermediate passes. In his last game against the Patriots, he completed 15 of 22 passes. While Tagovailoa only had 109 passing yards in that game, he didn't have the receivers to necessarily make strong plays after the catch like he does now.
2. New England's ground game will look…fine
The biggest story of training camp and the preseason was the Patriots' struggles to get yards on the ground while rushing behind a new zone blocking scheme. However, they didn't exclusively call stretch runs and found success rushing up the middle while working in the old ground game.
Damien Harris, for instance, rushed for 18 yards on three carries up the middle against the Panthers. Rhamondre Stevenson had 11 yards on two inside carries and added 13 yards on a toss in the preseason finale against the Raiders.
They also had success against the Dolphins on the ground last season. In the season-opening matchup, Harris rushed for 100 yards on 23 carries. In the second matchup, Harris, Stevenson, and Brandon Bolden combined for 107 yards on 22 carries.
New England certainly has the talent to get yards on the ground, and while it may struggle behind a changed offensive line, I think it'll be adequate enough to keep the Patriots in the game.
1. The Patriots fall in a close one
Ultimately, I think the Patriots will end up falling even if they're able to silence a couple of preseason concerns. It's tough to deny that the Dolphins have the more talented roster and while I think Hill can be slowed down, the attention he'll likely get will open possibilities for the rest of Miami's passing game.
I think both teams work to play a slower-paced game, with the Dolphins pulling away with a 23-20 victory.
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