There's arguably a three-player race for the NFL's MVP award at the end of 2018, but the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees should be the recipient. At some point in the not-so-distant future, fans are going to look back at the Saints quarterback and consider the eventual Hall of Famer one of the greatest and most underrated signal-callers of all time.
And it looks as if he's fighting that stigma again in 2018.
The emergence of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been a major factor in why Brees may not win the NFL MVP award when the regular season draws to a close. Mahomes has been electrifying, for sure. There's no questioning that. And one could again tack on how Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley is just as deserving of the accolade after his impressive efforts this year.
But Brees deserves it. And it's not just because of a proverbial “lifetime achievement” award given towards the tail end of his remarkable career.
Let's face it, Brees is playing at an All-Pro level at 39 years old. He'll turn 40 years old when the Saints are pushing for yet another deep postseason run this January. And after helping knock off New Orleans' division rivals, the Atlanta Falcons, by a score of 31-17 in Week 12 on Thursday Night Football, it's becoming even more apparent the veteran deserves to be named league's best once Week 17 is in the books.
Here are three reasons why.
Reason No. 1: Fewer Offensive Weapons
Patrick Mahomes inherited some serious offensive firepower when he took over starting duties from now-Washington Redskins quarterback Alex Smith. Two-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Tyreek Hill was already well established, and tight end Travis Kelce is arguably the best at his position right now.
And with running back Kareem Hunt helping the young quarterback — let's face it, first- and second-year quarterbacks are greatly helped by a strong ground game — Mahomes walked into arguably the best situation possible.
Same goes with Todd Gurley, who already had plenty of weapons around him in 2017 and only got stronger with the Rams' addition of wide receiver Brandin Cooks last offseason.
Granted, Drew Brees has a top-flight running back in Alvin Kamara. So that cancels out Hunt in this argument. And it also helps the Saints have provided Brees with an impact receiver in Michael Thomas.
Outside of those two, however, the Saints don't exactly boast a lot of household-name playmakers, making Brees' efforts all the more special.
Reason No. 2: Drew Brees Is Better in the Analytical Too
Patrick Mahomes has a cannon for an arm. Pairing his efforts with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, it's not hard to see why opposing defenses are always worried about the deep ball.
But what if you learned Drew Brees is actually more effective in deep passing — attempts of 20-plus yards downfield?
Well, it's true. Before the Saints' win over the Falcons, Brees led all qualifying quarterbacks with a deep-ball passer rating of 139.8, per Pro Football Focus. Mahomes, on the other hand, ranks 12th with a rating of 110.4 on such attempts. Granted, Mahomes has taken far more deep shots down the field this season — 65 compared to Brees' 38 before Week 12. But Brees has been more effective with these attempts. The numbers prove it.
And in today's pass-happy NFL, where big plays have become commonplace, taking those big shots becomes a necessary part of any quarterbacking MVP candidate's game.
To stop that, however, defenses dial up pressure. It's why elite pass-rushers have become the second most-prized commodity on a 53-man roster.
Brees fares better against pressure too.
Also per PFF entering Week 12, Brees' passer rating when facing pressure is an impressive 91.6, which ranked fifth among qualifiers. Meanwhile, Mahomes came in at No. 30 with an under-pressure rating of just 61.9
Mahomes will likely improve here as his maturation progresses. But that would only matter if we were talking about 2019 or 2020 MVP awards. Not this season. Brees has Mahomes beat in these crucial quarterbacking categories.
Reason No. 3: Coming Through in the Clutch
Envision you're a head coach and your team is trailing by a score late in the fourth quarter. Which quarterback would you rather have under center: Patrick Mahomes or Drew Brees? Or would you rather have Todd Gurley?
In fairness, you could pick any of the three and not be wrong. But since time is of the essence in a pass-first league, let's stick with the two quarterbacks.
Brees already has three of those fourth-quarter comebacks this season, compared to Mahomes' one. So, if you're looking cor clutch-time performance, Brees is already starting to pull away.
It gets better, though. In the fourth quarter, Mahomes is posting a passer rating of 103.8. That's good, of course. But it's the worst quarter for Mahomes, statistically, out of any of the regulation frames. And he has eight touchdowns in the fourth quarter against four interceptions. Meanwhile, Brees' fourth-quarter passer rating before Week 12 was a whopping 133.6, which happens to be his best quarter of regulation. And the veteran has eight fourth-quarter touchdowns to zero interceptions.
Simply put, Brees is doing more to help his team win games late when it counts the most. This is by no means saying Mahomes is hurting the Chiefs. Rather the Saints are getting just a bit more from the future Hall of Famer.
So, when you're all casting your MVP wish-list votes for 2018, you're much better off selecting Brees as the guy even though Mahomes might be the hotter storyline.