Here we are, Week 18 of the 2022-2023 NFL season. This weekend features several games that will determine playoff seeding, as well as who makes the playoffs. The Bills will be hosting the Patriots in an emotionally charged game, and the Steelers need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Let’s see the best NFL picks for making money betting on these matchups!
Be sure to check out our NFL odds series for more on betting around the NFL.
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Patriots-Bills
New England: +7.5 (-105), +310 (ML)
Buffalo: -7.5 (-115), -390 (ML)
This game is going to go one of two ways. Either the Bills are going to come out absolutely on fire, ready to win this game for Damar Hamlin, or they are going to come out flat and completely disinterested in playing football.
Either option is a realistic possibility, and I wouldn’t fault them or place blame on them either way. That being said, I think the former is much more likely than the latter. I think that so much, in fact, that this week I’m going to be putting my money where my mouth is and betting on the Bills. They are by far the better football team under normal circumstances. They will also be playing at home, and the emotion surrounding this stadium, this team, and this game will be at a level we haven’t seen in quite some time, if ever.
Knowing that their teammate is doing better, breathing on his own, speaking to teammates, and even asking about the game and team, will light a fire under this team this weekend. It is even possible that Hamlin is able to record a video message for the team and fans to be played on the Jumbotron.
The whole nation is going to be rooting for the Bills, and the emotional lift will allow the superior team to absolutely dominate this game.
Final score: Bills 41, Patriots 24.
NFL Pick: Bills -7.5 (-115)
NFL Odds: Browns-Steelers
Cleveland: +2.5 (-110), +120 (ML)
Pittsburgh: -2.5 (-110), -142 (ML)
While the Steelers still need a few other games to go their way this weekend, if they defeat Cleveland they will have a shot at earning a playoff berth. Two Browns starters, Denzel Ward and Jack Conklin, missed time during practice this week. Jadeveon Clowney also will in all likelihood not be suiting up for the Browns, as he was sent home from practice earlier this week after making critical comments about the team.
Kenny Pickett’s improvement has continued in recent weeks, with the rookie leading two consecutive game-winning drives in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter in Pittsburgh’s last two games. The Steelers are gelling, and they have established an identity as a run-first team led by the resurgence of Najee Harris, with Pickett playing a game manager role and stepping up when necessary.
Tomlin’s non-losing seasons record is also on the line here. While many jokes have been made over the years, having a winning season with this young team is a genuine accomplishment. It will be a fight, but I believe the Steelers will ultimately pull this off.
Final score: Steelers 21, Browns 17.
NFL Pick: Steelers -2.5 (-110)
NFL Odds: Cowboys-Commanders
Dallas: -7 (-110), -330 (ML)
Washington: +7 (-110), +265 (ML)
The motivations between these two teams could not be more different: Depending on what happens in the other games, the Cowboys can put themselves in position to possibly win the 1 seed and the NFC East championship with a win on Sunday, while the Commanders have been eliminated from playoff contention and May end up playing some of their younger players for evaluation purposes.
The Cowboys are the stronger team, to begin with: If both teams were at full strength and fighting for a playoff spot, I’d still take the Cowboys. With the Commanders not having anything except pride on the line and the Cowboys having playoff positioning on the line, I have even more confidence in the Cowboys. This is before we even get to the players on the field. Dallas, already the better team talent-wise, will be at full strength while it is entirely possible that Washington will be using this game as an opportunity to take a look at some of their younger, more inexperienced players.
The Cowboys are playing quality football of late, coming off two straight wins. They have momentum, and this Washington team is not going to be in a position to slow them down.
I think the Cowboys will get off to a fast start and never look back, while Washington will struggle to keep up offensively.
Final score prediction: Cowboys 31, Commanders 17.
NFL Pick: Cowboys -7 (-110)
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