In a rematch of a weird Week 6 showdown, the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs face off in KC for a chance to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The 26-17 Chiefs win was an early preview to the AFC Championship game – but this time the Chiefs are hosting. So, it is finally time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Bills-Chiefs AFC championship prediction and pick.
The main storyline for this game is the health of star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who had to leave during the second half of their win over the Cleveland Browns with a concussion. Mahomes took the vast majority of snaps during practice this week, and while an official status has not been provided, he told reporters Friday that he cleared the concussion protocol.
On the other side, the Bills were able to slow down Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts in Rivers’ last game to open the Wild Card round, and then helped keep Lamar Jackson and company in check to advance to the Championship round. Josh Allen’s progression into an outside MVP candidate has been the fuel that the Bills have used all season, yet he faces the biggest test of his young career on Sunday.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship odds.
NFL Odds: Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship Odds
Chiefs -3 (-115)
Bills +3 (-105)
Over 54.5 Points (-110)
Under 54.5 Points (-110)
Why the Bills can cover the spread
Outside of Allen, this team has been powered by wide receiver Stefon Diggs and a defense that has been able to box really good players over the entire season. In their Week 6 meeting, Mahomes only went 21-for-26 for 225 yards and two touchdowns, and they shut down Tyreek Hill, holding the Cheetah to only 20 yards on three catches.
Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a huge part of KC’s attack, putting up 26 carries for 161 yards, and with Edwards-Helaire not being at full strength, the hope is that this Buffalo defense can help slow down KC’s rushing attack and put added pressure on Mahomes, who is not at full strength (don't forget he injured his foot in the first half against the Browns).
By pairing a strong defensive game plan with the Allen-Diggs combination, the Bills have enough firepower to not only cover this field-goal spread, but to also win the game. A lot of things will obviously need to go their way, but Buffalo certainly stacks up well against this strong Kansas City team.
Why the Chiefs can cover the spread
Having Mahomes in this game, even if he is not at 100 percent, is enough to keep this Chiefs team as dangerous as they have been all season – it just may take a heavier reliance on the supporting cast to get them back to the Super Bowl.
Mahomes will likely be tasked with taking fewer chances and making sure that he holds the role of a play-making QB that stays in the pocket and relies more on his arm than his legs to make plays happen. For that to happen, the run game will need to be used early and often to force the Bills to play both sides of the attack.
Travis Kelce, Hill, and Edwards-Helaire are going to be the biggest weapons (as they always are) for Mahomes to utilize each and every play, and the playmaking abilities of each of these three players will need to be capitalized on in different ways by head coach Andy Reid – feeding CEH more carries, getting Hill involved more in short passing situations, and involving Kelce in a higher dosage of screen plays could go a long way to helping keep Mahomes healthy and engaged while taking some of the weight off his shoulders.
Kansas City's defense is certainly going to have its hands full too, but safety Tyrann Mathieu is going to be the X-Factor in keeping Allen boxed and Diggs from hurting this defense too badly. If Mathieu can hold his own by playing down in the box and forcing Allen to abandon his first read (Diggs), Allen's playmaking skills can undoubtedly fall apart, forcing him into turnover-causing situations that could change the course of the game.
Final Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship Prediction & Pick
Seeing the two best teams in the AFC face off for a trip to Florida and a Super Bowl berth is exactly the outcome that you want if you are a good-natured fan of the sport of football, and the AFC did not let you down in that regard this year. However, you should be getting used to the outcome of these AFC Championship games, especially if that one team remains a constant in them.
Mahomes has been here before and knows exactly what it takes to win on a stage like this. Not being at full strength certainly will make him work harder for things that usually come naturally, but his ability to coordinate this offense as smoothly and crisply as he does is bar-none and matched by almost no one.
Allen and the Bills will put up a very good fight, and this game has the makings of coming down to the final possession, but the Chiefs have just enough to get back to the promised land yet again.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: KC 32, BUF 26
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