The Buffalo Bills and the Tennessee Titans will clash in prime time on Monday Night Football. It's time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Bills-Titans prediction and pick.
After their appearance in the AFC Championship game last season, everyone expected the Bills to be one of the best teams in the AFC. Following a dominant victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, it looks like Buffalo is the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Titans were expected to contend for that honor this season, but it's been a disappointing start for Tennessee so far. A horrendous loss to the New York Jets set the tone for the beginning of a season that has been a monster letdown for head coach Mike Vrabel. A win against the best team in the conference could turn everything around, so this is a hugely important matchup.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Monday night's game.
NFL Odds: Bills-Titans Odds
Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 (-115)
Tennessee Titans +5 1/2 (-105)
Over 53 1/2 points (-113)
Under 53 1/2 points (-107)
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Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread
This Buffalo Bills team is exactly what the Kansas City Chiefs were supposed to be this season. They possess an elite quarterback, and explosive offense, and a defense that solid enough to get the job done against most teams. This potent offense should play well against a Titans defense that has been horrible to start the year. Buffalo has only scored less than 30 points once this season, and that was all the way back in Week 1. The Titans allowed 27 points to the New York Jets as well as allowing more than 30 points in two other games. This is one of the best matchups possible for quarterback Josh Allen, so expect a fantastic outing from him and the entirety of the Buffalo offense.
Injuries have started to take their toll around the league, and the Titans are among the teams that have it the worst. Tennessee has been hammered by injuries, with 13 players landing on their injury report before this matchup. Three starting defenders missed practice, including cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Caleb Farley. Starting left guard Rodger Saffold also missed practice this week, and tackle Taylor Lewan found his way on to the injury report as well. A game against the Bills would be dicey at full health, but this weakened Titans team has it much worse than usual.
Why The Titans Could Cover The Spread
The last time these two teams played, the Titans absolutely destroyed Buffalo to the tune of a 42-16 final score. Ryan Tannehill lit up the Buffalo defense, leading his team to a victory without all that much help from Derrick Henry. The Bills didn't upgrade all that throughout the offseason, and they've only faced one good offensive team all season long. The Titans are easily the second-best offensive unit that Buffalo has faced this season, so it's far from a lock that the Bills can rely on their defense to keep Tennessee from a cover.
The Titans also have the benefit of home field advantage in this one. Historically, Ryan Tannehill is a significantly better signal-caller when he plays at home. In 2020 the Texas A&M product eanred a higher completion percentage, more touchdowns, and a better quarterback rating at home than on the road. That home field advantage may be just enough for the Titans to pull off a backdoor cover in a game where they should trail for a majority of the time.
Final Bills-Titans Prediction & Pick
This is a simple pick. It's very surprising to see the Bills getting less than touchdown against a Titans team that has been as volatile as can be. Lock in Buffalo here confidently.
FINAL PICK: Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 (-115)
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