After four long months, the NFC Championship matchup is set, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Lambeau to take on Green Bay Packers on Sunday, Jan. 24 at 3:05 p.m. It’s time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Buccaneers-Packers NFC championship prediction and pick.
Two of the best quarterbacks to ever play professional football in Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers will meet in the playoffs for the first time in their careers.
Considering the status of those two passers, the importance of this game as the final step to Super Bowl 55, and the fact that legal online sports betting launches in the state of Michigan on Friday, there's no doubt that thousands of football fans will be wagering on this game.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Buccaneers-Packers NFC Championship odds, per betonline.ag.
NFL Odds: Buccaneers-Packers NFC Championship Odds
Packers -3.5 (-123)
Buccaneers +3.5 (+103)
Over 51 (-110)
Under 51 (-110)
Why the Packers can cover the spread
Advanced statistics say that the Packers have been so successful because they arguably have the best offense in football, as they rank first in Football Outsiders' offensive DVOA.
The Packers have been an even better team at home recently. Over the past two seasons, Green Bay is 14-2 at home, with both losses only coming by seven points or less.
Betting on Aaron Rodgers at home has probably helped a few sharp bettors pay off their mortgages, as Rodgers has posted a 78-19-1 career record at Lambeau Field, including wins in his last four home playoff games.
The Packers defense is no longer the weakness that it once was, and as Skip Snow laid out for USAToday's Sportsbookwire, the unit is playing its best brand of football right now and has helped the Packers stay undefeated since Week 11.
“The victory marked Green Bay’s seventh in a row since a Week 11 setback against the Indianapolis Colts. The last four games in that streak have seen the Packers hold foes under 20 points. Green Bay held the Rams to a 2-of-9 mark on third- and fourth-down plays and to just 244 total yards in the game.”
With that defensive efficiency and the help of playmakers like Davante Adams and Aaron Jones, the Packers don't need Rodgers to be perfect to win and cover the spread.
Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread
This game is rightfully being headlined as a shootout; while the Packers have the best offense in football according to Football Outsiders, the Buccaneers are not far behind, ranking third in offensive DVOA this season.
That offense is led by Tom Brady, who is appearing in his record 14th conference championship game and has been a proven winner who thrives in big moments.
Brady has been able to succeed thanks to the quality weapons around him, headlined by Mike Evans, who led the team with 70 receptions in 2020.
It speaks to Tampa Bay's quality weapons (Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Johnson and Antonio Brown) that Evans was held to one catch against the Saints and the Bucs still won the game thanks largely to their strong passing game
Brady's statline against the New Orleans Saints looks fairly pedestrian (18/33 for 199 yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown and a 92.9 passer rating), but thanks to the quality playmakers in the passing game and the rise of “Playoff Lenny” (156 yards and two total touchdowns for Fournette this postseason), Brady can be an overqualified game manager and still lead the Bucs to victory.
The Bucs boast some quality players on the other side of the ball as well who can make life hell for Aaron Rodgers.
Tampa Bay ranked fourth in the league with 48 sacks, and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting helped hold All-Pro wide receiver Michael Thomas to zero catches on four targets.
If the Bucs front seven can pressure Rodgers while Murphy-Bunting limits his No. 1 option in Davante Adams, it could get ugly for Packers bettors as it did during Tampa Bay's 38-10 rout of Green Bay in Week 6.
Final Buccaneers-Packers NFC Championship Prediction & Pick
Despite frigid conditions in Lambeau, this matchup features two of the best offenses in football, making the over a good play.
As dominant as Rodgers has been over his career, he doesn't have the greatest record in NFC Championship games, going 1-3 in four tries in the second biggest game in football.
While none of those games have been at home for Rodgers, the Bucs may have too many weapons on offense for the Packers to keep up.
It's unlikely that Murphy-Bunting will hold Adams to zero catches, but limiting him and forcing other pass catchers like Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan to make plays will make the game difficult for the Packers.
With two Hall-of-Fame passers, neither team is at a clear disadvantage. With that in mind, taking the Bucs with the points and the positive odds seems like the smart decision.
Expect the Bucs to not only cover the spread, but win the game outright, as Tom Brady chases his 7th Super Bowl ring and his first with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Tampa Bay 35, Green Bay 30
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