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NFL Odds: Colts vs. Texans prediction, odds and pick – 9/11/2022

Colts Texans prediction

The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans will square off in an AFC South matchup to open their 2022 seasons on Sunday afternoon. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our NFL odds series, which includes a Colts-Texans prediction and pick, laid out below.

After going 9-8 and narrowly missing the playoffs in 2021, Indianapolis has kept head coach Frank Reich but ultimately has made a switch at quarterback. Since Peyton Manning left for Denver, the search has been on for a permanent replacement at the position. A weakened AFC South should come down to Indianapolis and Tennessee.

Houston struggled both on and off the field in 2021, finishing 4-13, only ahead of the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South. Now, a new regime is in place, with Lovie Smith replacing David Culley, who lasted just one season as the head coach in Houston.

Here are the Colts-Texans NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel

NFL Odds: Colts-Texans Odds

Indianapolis Colts: -7.5 (-104)

Houston Texans: +7.5 (-118)

Over: 45.5 (-115)

Under: 45.5 (-105)

Why The Colts Could Cover The Spread

Indianapolis spent last season with Carson Wentz at starter and now will go with a different veteran. Matt Ryan was acquired from Atlanta in the offseason and will be the signal caller for this team in 2022. Ryan will suit up for a team other than Atlanta for the first time in his career. In 14 seasons in Atlanta, Ryan won Offensive Rookie of the Year, and an NFL MVP, leading the team to a Super Bowl appearance. Ryan has thrown for 367 touchdowns in his career. Easing any pressure on Ryan is a top running back, Jonathan Taylor. Taylor was the team’s second-round pick in 2020 and led the NFL with 1,811 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns last season. Michael Pittman, Jr. led the team with 88 catches, 1,082 receiving yards, and six touchdowns last season. Teaming with Pittman, Jr. will be the team’s second-round pick, Alec Pierce, out of Cincinnati.

Indianapolis surrendered 21.5 points per game, the ninth-lowest total in the league. Last year’s leading tackler Bobby Okereke returns after totaling 132 tackles in 2021. Shaquille Leonard also returns, and he has not had less than 121 tackles in any of his four seasons with the team. DeForest Buckner has registered 16.5 sacks in two seasons with the team, including a team-leading seven last season. Yannick Ngakoue also has been added to the defensive line, bringing 55.5 career sacks. Kenny Moore and Leonard tied for the team lead with four interceptions.

Why The Texans Could Cover The Spread

Houston has rid itself of the Deshaun Watson distraction, opting to go with Davis Mills at quarterback. Mills did start 11 games as a rookie in 2021, going 2-9 but throwing 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Mills is likely just a placeholder but clearly can make some plays while he holds the starting position. Rookie Dameon Pierce is the new starting running back after being drafted in the fourth round. Brandin Cooks has been the only reliable wide receiver on this team, registering over 1,000 yards in each of his two seasons in Houston. Phillip Dorsett has not been a significant contributor to a team since his second season in 2016, but has a chance to carve an important role. OJ Howard was scooped up by Houston after Buffalo cut the tight end, and should see a ton of playing time.

Houston’s defense allowed 26.6 points per game in 2021 but should see some improvement. Derek Stingley, Jr. was drafted third overall to rejuvenate a morbid secondary that totaled just 17 interceptions in 2021. Jerry Hughes is a veteran with over 50 career sacks, added to boost the defensive line along with Mario Addison, who will likely miss the first game.

Final Colts-Texans Prediction & Pick

Too many unknowns for Houston, even with the touchdown plus spread.

Final Colts-Texans Prediction & Pick: Indianapolis -7.5 (-104), under 45.5 (-105)