Week 11 will showcase two rivals from the AFC East division. The Miami Dolphins will take on the New York Jets on Sunday. It's time to continue our NFL Odds series with a Dolphins-Jets prediction and pick.
The Dolphins are fresh off a great win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10 last Thursday night. The defense played extremely well and blitzed Lamar Jackson all night long. They did what was needed and contained Jackson for the entire game. The Ravens didn't score a touchdown until late in the game, but it didn't matter. The Dolphins will now face a divisional opponent and it's a favorable one.
For more insight on the Dolphins-Jets matchup in Week 11, listen below:
The New York Jets, on the other hand, are not playing well at all right now. The team has given up 175 points over their last four games. That is an atrocious number and one that needs to be dealt with. If you are allowing that many points during a four-game span then you have a ton of problems to deal with. There are some teams like the 2000 Ravens who didn't allow that many points for an entire season. The Jets have a long way to go in order to put themselves into a relevant conversation. The team announced that Joe Flacco will get the start against the Dolphins.
Here are the Dolphins-Jets odds for this Week 11 NFL matchup, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Dolphins-Jets Odds
Miami Dolphins: -3.5 (-106)
New York Jets: +3.5 (-114)
Over: 44.5 (-110)
Under: 44.5 (-110)
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Why The Dolphins Could Cover The Spread
The Dolphins can cover this spread if their defense continues to play well. They contained Lamar Jackson for an entire game, they should have no issue doing the same to Joe Flacco. Flacco will be the third quarterback to start for New York this season. Starter Zach Wilson and backup Mike White are dealing with injuries that will keep them out for this week. Wilson is set to return soon and are not rushing him back.
Miami is 4-5-1 against the spread this year. They are actually averaging fewer points per game than the Jets, but only by about 0.2 points. That is something the Dolphins need to focus on as the defense is what is keeping them in games. Tua Tagovailoa is predicted to play well this week against a Jets defense that gives up a ton of points. Miami should have no problem running the points up this week, which is something they desperately need.
Why The Jets Could Cover The Spread
The Jets are not likely to cover this spread this week. The Dolphins do not contain a great offense, but the Jets defense is flat-out bad. I expect the Dolphins to score a good amount of points on Sunday and the defense should contain Flacco. If the Jets are going to cover this spread, then they will need to execute and it's as simple as that. The offense has the potential to score points but they will be facing a defense that just shut down an MVP candidate.
The Jets are going to need to bring out the bag of tricks this week if they want to keep it close. New York is 2-7 on the season and 2-7 against the spread. They don't have much to lose and Flacco starting at quarterback is proof that is the case. The Jets are averaging a league-worst 32.9 points per game this season.
Final Dolphins-Jets Prediction & Pick
I expect the Dolphins to cover this spread and win. I'm actually surprised the spread isn't more and I would have probably taken it as well. I think Tagovailoa will play one of the better games of his career and it could finally turn things around for them. The Dolphin surely won't make the playoffs this year but it's never too late to start to turn the tide a little.
Final Dolphins-Jets Prediction & Pick: Dolphins -3.5 (-106)
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