How about them, Montreal Canadiens? The Habs have averted a sweep with a win in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals, which was exactly what the mayor of Tampa wanted to happen. Are we going to see Montreal pull off another life-extending victory? Or have will the Stanley Cup be finally kissed this coming Wednesday night? It’s time to continue our NHL odds series and make a Canadiens-Lightning Game 5 prediction and pick.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Canadiens-Lightning odds.
NHL Odds: Canadiens-Lightning Game 5 Odds
Montreal Canadiens +202
Tampa Bay Lightning -226
Over 5.0 goals (-127)
Under 5.0 goals (+115)
Why The Canadiens Could Cover The Spread
If the Canadiens were to lose this series, they just made sure that the Lightning would have to do it without the necessity of the brooms. Montreal played like a team that’s really desperate for a win in Game 4, and it’s best personified by their special teams that did not allow Tampa to strike at any point during the Bolts’ five power-play chances.
The Habs, who entered the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals with zero PP goals surrendered in the entire second and third rounds of the playoffs, have limited the Lighting to just one goal on nine opportunities on the man advantage. It’s still good to know for Canadiens fans that their penalty skill is doing a magnificent job against these talented Lightning.
Carey Price was solid in Game 4, as he stopped 32 of 34 shots. He also had a goal as his cushion early, with Josh Anderson scoring the game’s first goal. Scoring early has been a big key to success for the Lightning all season long and it was just about time in Game 4 that Montreal got to enjoy that kind of timely offense. Expect the Canadiens to keep Anderson in the second line together with Nick Suzuki, and Cole Caufield following the success of that unit last Monday. The Canadiens are 10-3 in their last 13 games after getting exactly one day of rest.
Before you make your own Canadiens-Lightning prediction, check out what we have to say about Tampa Bay first.
Why The Lighting Could Cover The Spread
Sometimes you just can’t beat luck. Although the Lightning lost in Game 4, they still played arguably better than Montreal overall in that contest. They simply just couldn’t bury the goals they needed to put Montreal away. The Bolts were +13 on shots taken (34-21), thanks in large part to their five power plays in Game 4.
In addition to that, Tampa Bay had a 60.4 CF% and 70.66 xGF% in that game. Those numbers paint a clear picture of just how dominant Tampa Bay was in terms of puck possession. If only they were more accurate with their shots, you wouldn’t be reading a preview for Game 5 of the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals. With the series going back to Amalie Arena, where the Lightning won Games 1 and 2, Nikita Kucherov and the team’s vaunted first line could be at its most lethal form again.
So far in the playoffs, Kucherov has eight goals and 24 assists, while Brayden Point has 14 goals and nine assists. There’s no reason at all for the Lightning to feel panic, especially since they’re still up 3-1. As long as they keep on getting those high-danger shot attempts, the Bolts are bound to explode offensively. Also, here's an interesting trend to help you decide on your Canadiens-Lightning prediction: The Lightning are 41-13 in their last 54 games on Wednesday.
Final Canadiens-Lightning Game 5 Prediction & Pick
The Lightning are not going to waste another opportunity to close the series out. Playing at home and at full strength, expect Tampa Bay to dominate Montreal at home.
FINAL PICK: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+116)
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