The second half of the NIT finals is decided in this WAC against Conference USA match-up as the Utah Valley Wolverines face off against the UAB Blazers. It's time to continue our NIT odds series with this Utah Valley-UAB prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Utah Valley is hoping to make its first-ever post-season tournament finals with a win over the Blazers. In the program's short history, they have received six post-season tournament bids, with this being their second NIT. The deepest run they have ever made in the post-season is in 2017, when the Wolverines appeared in the CBI semi-finals, losing to Wyoming. UAB has a much more extensive post-season history. With 16 NCAA tournament bids, including three Sweet Sixteen and an Elite Eight appearance, there is more history for the Blazers. They have never won a post-season tournament though, with the closest being in 1989 and 1993 when UAB won the third-place game in the NIT.
Here are the Utah Valley-UAB NIT odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NIT Odds: Utah Valley-UAB Odds
Utah Valley Wolverines: +3.5 (-115)
UAB Blazers: -3.5 (-105)
Over: 151.5 (-115)
Under: 151.5 (-105)
How To Watch Utah Valley vs. UAB
TV: ESPN2
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 9:30 PM ET/ 6:30 PM PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Utah Valley Could Cover The Spread
Utah Valley comes in as an unseeded team from the NIT, beating New Mexico, Colorado, and Cincinnati on the way to this semi-final matchup. In the regular season, the Wolverines averaged 76.7 points per game, which was top 60 in the nation. They have improved on that so far in the NIT, scoring 79.3 points per game in the tournament.
Justin Harmon has been leading the way for the Wolverines so far in the tournament. He scored 32 points in the first round of the NIT against New Mexico and followed that up with 18 and 17-point outings. The team's leading scorer has improved on his season average of 13.9 points per game in each round and will look to continue that trend. This should not discount Le'Tre Darthard though. Darthard is a capable scorer, who averaged over 13 points per game on the season. He has struggled in the tournament thus far though. He has two games under 17% field goal shooting, and his best outing only resulted in 13 points.
Beyond the scoring is big man Aziz Bandaogo. While he did average 11.5 points per game this season, that is not the focus of his game. This year he has averaged 10.2 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks per game. Bandaogo has shown he can take over a game. This year in the WAC tournament, he blocked three shots on one possession, had a blocked shot he brought back for a basket, and while being held to just a singular point through most of the game, hit four big dunks in the last five minutes to get his team a win. If Darthard finds his groove and Bandaogo takes over a game as he can, the Wolverines can move on.
Why UAB Could Cover The Spread
UAB just broke their program record for wins in a single season, and they also hold the distinction of being one of three teams to beat FAU this year. That win showed exactly the type of team UAB can be, with great shooting and solid rebounding. The loss to FAU in the conference tournament is the blueprint to beat the Blazers, limiting second-chance points, slowing down their three-point game, and winning the rebound battle.
UAB is led on the offensive end by Senior guard Jordan Walker. Walker finished the year fourth in the nation in points per game this year with 22.6 points per outing. Three-point shooting was a major part of his game on the year, with a high volume of three-point shots. His scoring is a major part of this offense but does not necessarily dictate if UAB wins the game. Walker struggled heavily in the second round against Morehead State but rebounded nicely to have a 21-point, seven-rebound, seven-assist outing in the win over Vanderbilt.
That Vanderbilt game was not a prototypical game for the Blazers though. They shot poorly from three, hitting only 13.3%, but to their credit, they adjusted. They won the rebounding battle, and the defense stepped up. After Vanderbilt made it 53-52 with 5:38 left, the UAB defense and rebounding took over, going on a 14-7 run to finish the game. That run included an over four-and-a-half-minute stretch that Vandy did not score. If that defense and rebounding show up tonight, they will run away with this game.
Final Utah Valley-UAB Prediction & Pick
UAB is the better squad. They are better on both offense and defense. The Blazers score more and allow fewer points. They cause more turnovers than Utah Valley as well. They also rebound better as a whole, but rebounding will be the key to this game. When UAB wins the rebounding battle, they win regularly. When they lose or have a close game, they are a .500 team. This may come down to Bandaogo from Utah Valley. UAB will control him though, and potentially set up an all-Conference-USA NIT Finals.
Final Utah Valley-UAB Prediction & Pick: UAB -3.5 (-105) and Under 151.5 (-105)
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