After the smoke cleared in round one of the 2021 NBA playoffs (save for the Dallas Mavericks vs. L.A. Clippers series), the second round will feature what figures to be a compelling match-up between the no. 2 Phoenix Suns and the 3rd seeded Denver Nuggets. Phoenix is riding the high of knocking off LeBron James and the defending NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers. Meanwhile, the Nuggets were able to stop the sensational Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers in six games.
The Nuggets will continue their playoff run without some key players, most importantly star point guard Jamal Murray, who already done for the year with a torn ACL. Will Barton (right hamstring strain) and PJ Dozier (right adductor strain) missed the entirety of their first round series win over the Blazers, though there is a possibility Barton could make his return at some point during in this upcoming series versus the Suns.
According to Nick Bromberg of Yahoo Sports, Phoenix enters as heavy favorites to advance to the Western Conference Finals as a result of Denver's injury woes. Nonetheless, many believed the short-handed Nuggets would go down against a Blazers squad led by an absolute dynamo like Lillard. They proved they can win a series despite this and they could find a way to get past a relatively playoff newbie like the Suns in the second round. With that, here are three reasons the Nuggets can upset the Suns in the Western Conference Semi-Finals.
1. Denver has the best player in this series
Whenever you have the best player in a series, you always have a chance to win. The Nuggets undoubtedly have that with MVP favorite Nikola Jokic. The Joker has been on point, not just in their previous series, but throughout the entire season. Many believed Denver would fold once Jamal Murray tore his ACL in early March. But they have been just as good with Jokic somehow elevating his already elite level of play.
In addition, who's gonna stop Jokic on Phoenix? Yes, Deandre Ayton grew so much as a defender and the Lakers series proved that he is ready to anchor the defense for the Suns. Still, Jokic has a ton of tricks up his sleeve and is arguably the most uniquely gifted offensive big man in the NBA. This could prove to be too much for the third-year big man to handle.
Jokic did a lot of damage against Jusuf Nurkic in the previous series and forced the Bosnian Beast into foul trouble for pretty much every game. The Joker could do the same against Ayton if the Suns big man doesn't show enough discipline on the defensive end of the floor. If Ayton is off the floor due to foul trouble, the Suns won't have anyone to stop The Joker. Good luck Frank Kaminsky.
Jokic has been playing with so much confidence as of late, as well, and he doesn't seem to be fazed at all with any kind of pressure that goes his way. The Serbian absolutely picked apart the Blazers last series and controlled every possession in the palm of his hands. Sure, Phoenix is much better defensively, but Jokic has proven in the past that he can still have way his even against some of the best defenses in the NBA.
2. Chris Paul's health
Chris Paul's shoulder stinger in Game 1 of their series against the Lakers proved to be a major storyline for Phoenix throughout the series. While Paul eventually gutted it out and played just enough to help the Suns get past the now-dethroned champs, it's clear he still isn't a hundred percent.
In addition, it appeared like CP3 re-aggravated his injury in Game 5. While this didn't seem to bother him a ton in the closeout Game 6, this could still prove to be a concern for the Suns if Paul isn't at a hundred percent throughout this series. The Nuggets may be down some bodies particularly in their guard position. But they do have some gritty and scrappy players such as Austin Rivers and Facundo Campazzo in their current guard rotation that could make life difficult for Paul. Head coach Michael Malone also called upon Aaron Gordon to take on Damian Lillard in the previous series and if Paul isn't 100 percent, he could assign the versatile wing to guard the 36-year old in some stretches.
3. Experience
Phoenix may have a couple of veterans in Chris Paul and Jae Crowder, both of whom have had significant playoff experience through their careers. However, majority of their roster consists of relatively inexperienced players in the postseason. That certainly didn't look the case in their first playoff series, where they impressively dethroned the defending champs.
Nevertheless, we'd still have to give the edge to Denver here in terms of experience. This iteration of the Nuggets has been in the playoffs in each of the past three seasons and they made deep runs in the previous two. In the 2019 playoffs, Denver came just one win from making the conference finals and just came up short against the Blazers in a heartbreaking Game 7 loss.
Last year in the bubble, the Nuggets reached the Western Conference Finals, where they were eventually dispatched by the eventual champion Lakers. These Nuggets, especially Jokic, have been battle-tested as well. To get to the conference finals last year, Denver had to overcome two separate 3-1 series deficits and did so against two top West contenders this season in the Utah Jazz and L.A. Clippers.
Denver may be undermanned and down another star, but with Nikola Jokic leading the way, it's going to be hard to count them out completely despite the fact.
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