After four straight NBA Finals appearances and adding yet another All-Star to the mix, the Golden State Warriors seem like the favorites to come out on the top of the Western Conference again. But with teams all around the league being improved and posing threats to the throne, the Warriors may have a tough time reaching their fifth straight appearance at the biggest spotlight.
Last season, the Houston Rockets pushed the Warriors to the brink of elimination with 3-point shooting and the brilliance of James Harden. This season, even with Harden playing at an MVP level again, the Rockets have lost a little bit on defense and now have Chris Paul's aging legs to worry about. Last season, Houston boasted a dynamic offense and a defense that ranked seventh in the league in defensive rating. This year, the Rockets have plummeted to 27th in defensive rating.
While Harden can still prove to be a tall task for the Warriors, there's another team out West that could be the stumbling block for the defending champs. Teams will need both a strong offense and a stout defense to compete with the Warriors. And there are four teams in the league that rank in the top 10 in the NBA in both offensive and defensive rating: the Milwaukee Bucks, the Boston Celtics, the Toronto Raptors, and the Denver Nuggets.
Of the four, only one is in the West and could potentially halt the Warriors on their seemingly unstoppable trek to another NBA Finals. Despite their latest blowout loss against Golden State, the Nuggets have shown enough this season during their gritty win over the Warriors earlier in the year, to prove that they belong with the NBA's elite.
The Nikola Jokic Factor
The Warriors have traditionally struggled with multi-skilled big men who can pass and shoot at a high level. Before DeMarcus Cousins arrived, the Warriors' strength lied in their shooting and defense rather than the elite play of their big men. Nikola Jokic is a one-of-a-kind talent who has excellent court vision, a big frame to box out with, and shooting that extends out to the 3-point line.
This season, he's taken a step forward from his already-promising start to his career. The 23-year-old boasts a stat line ofĀ 20.1 points, 10.4 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 1.3 steals per game ā all while shooting 50 percent from the field. Jokic has also accumulated seven triple-doubles in this season alone.
Before the Cousins era, the Warriors had a plethora of long wing defenders that they would throw at any elite offensive player. Against a strong center in the playoffs like LaMarcus Aldridge, Draymond Green might handle the duties. Or Kevin Durant might even take a turn at times. But Jokic is especially gifted not just in backing down a man with his size, but also in his ability to see the floor.
In this play against the Philadelphia 76ers, Jokic backs down 6-foot-10 Ben Simmons, who is known as an elite defender himself, before drawing three defenders in the paint. But instead of trying to finish, Jokic has the vision and awareness to pass to a wide-open Mason Plumlee underneath the basket.
That kind of athleticism from a big man could spell trouble for the Warriors. In their first meeting; which the Nuggets won 100-98, Jokic had Damian Jones guarding him at the elbow. A good pump fake from Jokic got Jones slightly out of position, and the Nuggets' big man drove to the basket for a crafty and creative finish.
On this play, with three minutes left, the Warriors sent out their death lineup to finish off the Nuggets. Jokic used a screen to get switched off of Draymond Green and onto Andre Iguodala. And while the Warriors take this risk when they go small, even the lengthy Iguodala stood no chance against Jokic in this play.
His court vision, shooting and size are all assets that Nikola Jokic has now mastered in his MVP-level season. The Warriors now trot out DeMarcus Cousins as their starting center, and he poses the big body presence that the team has long missed. But should the two teams meet in the playoffs, Jokic would likely still have his way, and the Warriors have reason to worry.
Depth
The Nuggets currently have seven different players averaging double figures this season. From Jamal Murray to Gary Harris to Paul Millsap, the Nuggets are a very deep team. In contrast, outside of DeMarcus Cousins, who just joined the team a few games ago, the Warriors only have three players averaging double figures and carrying the offensive load: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant.
But injuries have plagued the Denver roster for much of the season, recently getting Will Barton recently played for the first time this season. Harris and Millsap have also had various injuries that have kept them out for spurts. But when fully healthy, the Nuggets boast three guards in Murray, Barton, and Harris that can all flat-out score the basketball, averaging 18.5, 12.7, and 15.1 points per game, respectively.
In addition to the scorers, every championship-caliber team needs role players that contribute. The Nuggets seem to have struck gold in Torrey Craig, the lengthy second-year player who came to the NBA after his stint in Australia's National Basketball League. Juan Hernangomez has stepped up in the absence of Paul Millsap, as his numbers of eight points and five rebounds per game in 24 minutes a contest are all career highs. His 3-point percentage also hovers around 40 percent, making him a valuable asset as a stretch-four as well. In the Nuggets' first meeting with the Warriors, Hernangomez didn't give up on the last play of the game, and dramatically blocked Damian Jones on what would have been the game-tying dunk.
Rounded out by contributors like Mason Plumlee, Monte Morris, Trey Lyles, and Malik Beasley ā the Nuggets have a deep roster that has the potential to really test an opponent's bench come playoff time.
Elite Offense
When they control the pace, the Nuggets may be one of the few teams that can keep up with the Warriors offensively. Denver ranks third in the league in offensive rating, third in assists per game, and second in assist-to-turnover ratio.
They not only take care of the ball, but also put it in the basket at a high clip, ranking 10th in the league in team field goal percentage at 47 percent. What those numbers translate to is that the Nuggets move the ball well and share the ball at a rate comparable to the free-flowing ball movement offense of the Warriors.
In the play below, ball movement and player movement is what gets them the basket. Harris starts it by taking the handoff from Plumlee. After dropping it to the rolling Plumlee, Harris never stops moving and relocates to the corner, reminiscent of Stephen Curry, who often keeps moving after a pass to find a corner three. Here, Plumlee passes it back out to Murray, who finds Harris for that corner three. But a great closeout by Hornets forward Marvin Williams winds up with a blocked shot.
The Nuggets don't give up on the play, though. The ball is tipped back out to Murray, and the rock hops around untilĀ it finds Lyles underneath the basket for a layup.
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In addition to their ball movement, the Nuggets also excel with their rebounding, especially on the offensive boards. The Nuggets rank tops in the league in overall rebound percentage and are first in the league in offensive rebound percentage. Unsurprisingly, Denver also leads the league in second-chance points.Ā The rebound percentage stat measures how effective the team is at grabbing a rebound off of a missed shot or free throw.
They also play at a slow, methodical pace, ranking 27th in the league in possessions per game. In a year where scores have skyrocketed and the pace has picked up immensely compared to previous years, the Nuggets have stuck to what they know āmoving the ball, running the offense through Jokic, and grinding out wins.
At the end of the day, the Warriors may end up in their fifth straight Finals with all of their firepower and talent. And the way DeMarcus Cousins looks, they could seemingly trample their opposition in the West on their way there. But the Denver Nuggets, with ball movement principles and potential-MVP-candidate Nikola Jokic leading the way, might have something to say about that.
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