The No. 5 seeded Arizona State Sun Devils (22-11) face the No. 2 seeded Arizona Wildcats (24-6) in the semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament! Action tips off at 11:30 p.m. ET. Below we continue our College Basketball odds series with an Arizona State-Arizona prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Arizona State fended off both Oregon State and USC in the first two rounds of the tournament after finishing 11-9 in the Pac-12. The Sun Devils covered 46% of their games while 52% went over the projected point total. Arizona handled Stanford in the quarterfinals after going 14-6 in the Pac-12 regular season. The Wildcats covered 48% of their games while 56% went over. This will be the third meeting of the season between the in-state rivals. They split the regular season series 1-1 with each team winning on the road. Arizona State won the most recent matchup at the end of February, 89-88.
Here are the Arizona State-Arizona college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Arizona State-Arizona Odds
Arizona State: +6.5 (-102)
Arizona: -6.5 (-120)
Over: 154.5 (-110)
Under: 154.5 (-110)
How To Watch Arizona State vs. Arizona
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 11:30 p.m. ET/ 8:30 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Arizona State Could Cover The Spread
Arizona State has had an up-and-down season despite going 11-2 in their non-conference slate. The Sun Devils suffered brutal losses to Texas Southern and San Francisco but did manage to pick up key wins over VCU and Creighton. They started Pac-12 play hot at 6-1 but proceeded to lose five of six games and looked shaky the rest of the way. With that, the Sun Devils don't fare particularly well within the advanced metrics as they slot in at No. 62 in KenPom and No. 60 in NET. That being said, they do have five Quad 1 wins. Arizona State could do itself a ton of favors by winning tonight considering they are firmly on the bubble and projected as the last at-large team in the NCAA Tournament.
Arizona State is a well-balanced team that makes its mark on the defensive end. The Sun Devils rank 26th in KenPom's Defensive Efficiency metric and hold opponents to the ninth-lowest field goal percentage in the country. They do a great job protecting the rim as well, averaging the 25th-most blocks per game. Offensively, the Sun Devils are streaky but they do attempt a lot of threes. They hit 14 triples in their win over USA and drained 11 in their earlier win over Arizona – something they'll look to replicate tonight.
The Sun Devils are led by senior guard Desmond Cambridge. After averaging 13.8 PPG for ASU, Cambridge was named to the All-Pac-12 Second Team. The Nevada transfer is coming off perhaps the biggest game in his five-year career after he drained six threes en route to 27 points in their win over USC.
Why Arizona Could Cover The Spread
Arizona has been stellar all season after blitzing through their non-conference slate with a 12-0 record. Along the way, the Wildcats picked up notable wins over San Diego State, Creighton, Indiana, and Tennessee. While they did have some blips in Pac-12 play, they did take down UCLA once despite three puzzling double-digit losses. Arizona's strong record is backed up by the advanced rankings as they sit at No. 10 in KenPom and No. 11 in NET. With zero losses outside the first two quadrants, the Wildcats are comfortably in the field. Arizona currently projects as a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Arizona profiles as one of the premier offensive teams in the country. The Wildcats average 83.5 PPG – third-most in Division-1. They do an incredible job sharing the ball with the second-most assists per game. Arizona can score from all levels of the floor as they rank in the top 15 in both two and three-point field goal percentages. Additionally, Arizona is a stellar rebounding team who averages the eighth-most rebounds per game.
The Wildcats are led by First Team All-Pac-12 forward Azuolas Tubelis. The 6'11” junior exploded in his third season as a starter, averaging 19.9 PPG and 9.1 RPG. He comes into tonight red-hot with three straight 20-point games. Tubelis wasn't been slowed down by the Sun Devils in their two prior matchups considering he averaged 19 PPG and 9.0 RPG against them.
The X-factor for Arizona could be big man Oumar Ballo. The seven-foot junior was named the Pac-12's Most Improved Player after averaging 14.3 PPG and 8.5 RPG. He was named to the First Team Pac-12 for his efforts in serving as Arizona's primary rim protector with 1.3 blocks per game. Additionally, Ballo is coming off a monster 24-point outing in their win over Stanford.
Final Arizona State-Arizona Prediction & Pick
This is must-win territory for the Sun Devils and thus I like them to keep things close tonight.
Final Arizona State-Arizona Prediction & Pick: Arizona State +6.5 (-102)
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