Juan Soto continues his return to Washington as the San Diego Padres visit the Washington Nationals. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Nationals pick, prediction, and how-to-watch.
Last night Juan Soto hit a home run in his first trip back to Washington DC as the Padres won 7-4. It was the second straight game the Padres have scored seven runs and is a nice turnaround from their offensive woes. Joining Soto in hitting bombs on dinger Tuesday were Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, and Brandon Dixon, as the Padres scored six of their seven runs via the long ball. MacKenzie Gore labored through 4.2 innings, but it was the bullpen that allowed the game to get blown wide open. Erasmo Ramirez gave up four runs in just one inning of work, including two home runs.
Here are the Padres-Nationals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Nationals Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+100)
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-120)
Over: 10 (-105)
Under: 10 (-115)
How To Watch Padres vs. Nationals
TV: BSSD/MASN2
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 7:05 PM ET/ 4:05 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres have been struggling as of late. They have lost 11 of their last 15 games, but have won two in a row. At 22-26, they are currently in fourth place in the NL West and sit eight games behind the first-place Dodgers. They have scored just 37 runs in their last 15 games, with 14 of them coming in the last two. The magic number for the Padres seems to be six runs. They are 10-2 this year when they score six or more runs in a game. They are 12-22 when they fail to score six runs. Yes, six is a lot of runs to score, but this Padres offense is more than capable of doing so.
The focus of this game will be Juan Soto continuing his return to Washington. Soto has been having a great month at the plate and will be looking to keep it going. He is hitting .343 on the month, with an OBP of .459. Yesterday he launched a home run in his old stomping grounds, giving him nine on the year and four on the month. Soto is also better against right-handed pitching. He is hitting .300 this year against righties with seven home runs. Fernando Tatis Jr. has also been showing some power as of late. He has five home runs this month but is only hitting .266 on the month. Tatis has only hit .250 this year against right-handed pitching, but he does have three home runs and eight RBIs.
Ryan Weathers will be making his fifth start of the year in this one. He is 1-2 on the season with a 3.42 ERa in 23.2 innings pitched, including two relief appearances this year. His WHIP has been alright, sitting at 1.14 this year. His last start was a little rough as he went only 5.2 innings, with four runs, three hits, and four walks. He has given up one or more baserunners per inning in each of his starts this year, so it would be fair to expect more of the same today.
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
The Washington Nationals have the fifth-best team batting average in the major leagues this year, but while they hit a lot, there is not a lot of power. The Nationals rank 22nd in the majors in total bases, 24th in slugging, and 29th in home runs. The overall result is that they are 24th in runs scored this year. They are averaging just 4.1 runs per game this year, and with a team ERA of 4.40, the result is the Nationals sitting at 20-28 on the season.
Exemplifying the power struggles of the team this year is the fact that no player on the Washington Nationals ranks inside the top 50 in ISO. Jeimer Candelario has the highest ISO number on the team at .185, good for 63rd in the major. The power numbers are starting to pick up for him though. This month, Candelario is hitting .304, with ten extra-base hits. He has seven doubles, a triple, and five home runs.
On the mound today will be Trevor Williams. In nine starts this year he is 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA. He has been fairly consistent this season, with most of his starts lasting five to six innings and two to three runs scoring. There have been occasional outliers on both sides, with him going 5.1 innings without a run scored, but also 4.1 innings with five runs scored. It can be assumed that Williams will give up a home run today and three runs in roughly six innings of work. If the Nationals can outscore that, they should find themselves a win.
Final Padres-Nationals Prediction & Pick
This game will come down to which sets of bats wake up. The Padres bats have shown up in force in their last two games, but in general, have been cold. The Nationals are always hit or miss on if they will score runs or not. Both pitchers are similar. They are both going to give up a few runs, but most likely will not have themselves blown out of the game. With how the Padres hit yesterday, they can continue that again today.
Final Padres-Nationals Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5 (+100)
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