The New York Yankees host the San Diego Padres for a rare meeting between the two clubs. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Yankees prediction and pick.

The Padres and Yankees “almost” met in the World Series last season but both teams lost in their respective Conference Series. The one and only time the Padres made it to the Fall Classic was against a Yankees team that happened to win 125 regular season games that year in 1998. The Yankees swept Tony Gwynn and the Padres in four games.

Fast forward to today, and the Yankees are still one of the top teams in baseball. As for San Diego, they have shown flashes of stardom but have yet to remain consistent enough to consider themselves elite. With the second-highest payroll in the game, you are expected to be good. However, SD is just (23-27) on the season and have won just one series in the month of May. It’s still early, but if the Friars don’t start winning now then they will fall deep out of a playoff spot.

New York is (30-22) on the season and are coming off a series loss to the Baltimore Orioles. The AL East Division is clearly the best in baseball as every team is in a dogfight every game. The Yankees are third in the division as the Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays have dominated to start the season.

Here are the Padres-Yankees MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Padres-Yankees Odds

San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+140)

New York Yankees: +1.5 (-170)

Over: 9 (-118)

Under: 9 (-104)

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Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread

Starting for the Padres is right-hander Joe Musgrove. Musgrove suffered a broken bone in his foot before spring training and has yet to really pitch well this season because of it. He may be healthy now, but in five starts, he hasn’t pitched like he did last season. His ERA is up to 6.75 and has allowed six long balls this year. He allowed four runs to the Boston Red Sox in his last start. To make matters worse, the Padres have scored a combined six runs in his last three starts. Musgrove will give them at least five innings, but if the offense doesn’t pick it up then it won’t matter how the right-hander performs.

Juan Soto is finally starting to prove that the Padres had a reason to go out and trade for him last summer. He is batting .300 on the road this season and in his last 30 days is batting .333 with an OPS of 1.107. The lefty has drawn 26 walks in that span. Last night in Washington D.C., Soto finished 1-1 with four walks and two runs scored. If only the rest of the lineup could expand off that.

Manny Machado remains out for the Padres with a slightly fractured hand but he should return in the next week or two. Ha-Seong Kim smashed a ball off of his kneecap in yesterday’s contest and should miss tonight’s action. A name not many would expect to hear balling out right now is Rougned Odor. Odor won the game for the Padres last night with a go-ahead three-run shot to right field with two outs in the ninth. In his last seven games, he is 7-16 with three doubles, two homers, 11 RBIs, and an OPS of 1.471.

Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread

Starting for the Yankees tonight will be Randy Vasquez making his MLB debut. This is a good time to make a debut, as the Padres don’t tend to play well against rookie pitchers in this situation. Back in 2021, Tyler Gilbert debuted for the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Padres and threw a no-hitter in the 7-0 win. I’m not saying Vasquez will have that type of success tonight, but there is a good chance he shuts them down for a few innings. Vasquez is (1-5) on the season with a 4.85 ERA in 42.2 innings. He has 50 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.57. His MiLB career average is 3.31 with 381 strikeouts in 77 games.

The Yankees’ offensive run production is still getting the job done despite not winning the last series. They swept the Cincinnati Reds prior to that and scored a combined 17 runs in three games. However, NY is 23rd in batting average at .235 and the Padres are 29th at .224. It’s strange to see both of these teams not getting on base as much as we all expect. If Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo, and Anthony Volpe are hitting in this series then they should have no trouble against the Padres.

Final Padres-Yankees Prediction & Pick

I’m shocked the Padres are the favorite in this game even with a rookie debuting for the Yankees at home. Take the ‘Yanks to cover this spread at home.

Final Padres-Yankees Prediction & Pick: Yankees +1.5 (-170)