Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes became a rich man this summer. A very rich man.
The superstar inked a massive 10-year, $503 million contract extension with the Chiefs earlier this month, ensuring that he will be in Kansas City through most of his prime.
This comes after Mahomes led the Chiefs to a Super Bowl title this past season. He is also two years removed from winning an NFL MVP award. Oh, and did I mention he is just 24 years old?
The future is obviously very bright for Mahomes, who many feel is on his way to becoming the best quarterback of all-time.
While we should probably pump the brakes on that for now, there is no denying that Mahomes' trajectory is pretty incredible and that, barring injury, he should be in for a heck of a run over the next decade.
Mahomes will also surely be among the top picks in fantasy football for years to come. I mean, the man threw for over 5,000 yards with 50 touchdown passes in 2018, so you can see why.
So, let's break down Patrick Mahomes' fantasy football outlook heading into 2020.
Patrick Mahomes' 2019 Fantasy Stats
Mahomes wasn't nearly as dominant in 2019 as he was in 2018. As a matter of fact, the Texas Tech product finished eighth among all signal-callers in total points and sixth in average points per week this past year.
Of course, that comes with a qualifier.
Mahomes missed two full games due to a dislocated knee cap he suffered midseason, and because he sustained that injury during the first half of his team's Week 7 win over the Broncos, he was really sidelined for two-and-a-half games.
Plus, you also have to take into consideration that Mahomes was not quite 100 percent when he returned, and it showed as he was rather inconsistent from Weeks 10 through 17.
Overall, Mahomes threw for 4,031 yards, 26 touchdowns and five interceptions, well off of the torrid 5,097-yard, 50-touchdown campaign he enjoyed the year before.
So while Mahomes was still good in 2019, he experienced a rather significant dropoff from 2018, when he ranked No. 1 among all quarterbacks in a landslide.
Patrick Mahomes' 2020 Fantasy Projections
Here is the deal for Mahomes heading into 2020.
He is now 100 percent healthy, which is obviously incredibly significant given how much the knee injury affected his performance during the second half of 2019.
On top of that, Tyreek Hill—Mahomes' top wide receiver—was limited to 12 games due to injuries this past season and caught just 58 passes for 860 yards and seven touchdowns after lighting it up with 87 receptions for 1,479 yards and 12 scores the year prior. So not only is Mahomes' healthier, but his most lethal wideout is, as well.
Couple that with the fact that Mahomes also has one of the NFL's top tight ends in Travis Kelce and receivers Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson at his disposal, and you can envision a potentially huge year for Mahomes in 2020.
It's also important to note that the Chiefs added a new running back in Clyde Edwards-Helaire through the draft back in April, giving Mahomes another weapon out of the backfield alongside of Damien Williams.
I don't know if Mahomes will ever repeat his historic 2018 season, but I also don't think it's unrealistic to expect him to throw for in the neighborhood of 40 touchdowns in 2020.
More than likely, Mahomes will finish somewhere in between his 2018 and 2019 campaigns, so maybe something like 4,500 yards with 35-40 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Rank at Position
While I am expecting a big year out of Mahomes, that doesn't necessarily mean he will vault himself back into the No. 1 spot in the quarterback rankings.
Yes, he did it in 2018, but Lamar Jackson wasn't around yet. Well, he was, but he only started seven games and wasn't even remotely close to as effective as he was this past season when he won the MVP award.
Ten years ago, Mahomes would have been considered one of the most athletic quarterbacks in football, but now, speedsters like Jackson and Kyler Murray put him to shame in terms of mobility.
Mahomes rushed for just 272 yards in 2018 and 218 yards this past year, so he is heavily reliant on his arm to rack up fantasy points, unlike Jackson and others who can also utilize their legs.
But do I think Mahomes will finish eighth among all signal-callers again? Absolutely not.
So long as he stays healthy, Mahomes should easily be a top-five quarterback in fantasy in 2020, and the more likely scenario is that he finishes in the top three.
Names such as Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, Josh Allen and Murray all finished ahead of Mahomes in 2019. I don't expect the same results going into this coming season.
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