Models of success and failure are often repeated in professional sports. On Saturday, the New Orleans Pelicans copied a grave mistake made by the Sacramento Kings in 2019, firing their head coach after a season when his team made noteworthy progress.
Firing Dave Joerger has yielded poor results for the Kings
The Kings went 27-55 in the 2017-18 NBA season. The ensuing season, which was Joerger's third season patrolling the sidelines in Sacramento, they endured growth in every way possible.
De'Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield took enormous steps forward from both a production and reliability standpoint. They each increased their scoring outputs and showcased the ability to be go-to scorers (Fox went from averaging 11.6 to 17.3 points per game, and Hield went from averaging 13.6 points to 22.3 points per game).
Marvin Bagley was a bit inconsistent but still averaged an impressive 14.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, and one block per game in his rookie season. Meanwhile, Bogdan Bogdanovic came into his own as one of the best reserve scorers in the NBA, and Sacramento acquired forward Harrison Barnes, adding veteran pedigree.
As a whole, the Kings were an electric offense. They competed with most of the rowdy Western Conference and were in the playoff hunt until the final weeks of the regular season, finishing 39-43. What did the Kings do after a season where they turned a corner? Fire the head coach.
The Kings lost their first five games of the 2019-20 season under new head coach Luke Walton and were trying to get into a groove to chase a spot in the West all season. In the NBA bubble, they went 3-5, missing the playoffs for the 14th consecutive season. They've regressed and have as uncertain a future as ever with conflicting reports on Hield's status, Bagley's injury woes, Bogdanovic's future, and president Vlade Divac stepping down.
Would all of this have happened with Joerger?
Pelicans firing Alvin Gentry is a mistake
The 2018-19 season was a disaster for the Pelicans, low-lighted by underperforming off a second-round playoff appearance and rumors of Anthony Davis wanting out of town. As a result of the latter, the Pelicans traded Davis to the Los Angeles Lakers in the offseason.
Two of the signature players they received from the Lakers, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, had progressive seasons. Ingram was astonishing, averaging 23.8 points per game, shooting a career-best 39.1 percent from beyond the arc, and performing like an All-Star with the ball in his hands; Ball shot a career-best 37.5 percent from beyond the arc and was a savvy playmaker, moving the ball and exhibiting confidence off the dribble.
Meanwhile, Zion Williamson dazzled across the 24 games he played in his rookie season, averaging 22.5 points per game, while rookie big man Jaxson Hayes was respectable on both ends of the floor and Josh Hart was a reliable bench scorer. In their first season without Davis — and adjusting to the free-agent departures of Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton, who were each key contributors to their 2018-19 offense — the Pelicans improved their winning percentage by 1.5 percent and were in the playoff race until the final week of the regular season.
What did president David Griffin and friends do? Precisely what you'd expect from a rebuilding team: give the head coach the boot, relieving Alvin Gentry of his job after five seasons. Like the Pelicans, the NBA world expected a young, unproven roster to be a contender in a loaded Western Conference. Oh wait, no one expected that because it would've been absurd.
There has been a lot of buzz around Williamson being unhappy with the minutes he received. Gentry rested the Duke prodigy on a back-to-back and played him 20.7 minutes per contest in the NBA bubble. The irony and hypocrisy with the organization potentially being unhappy about this is rich.
For starters, this is a sport where teams shamelessly tank games and seasons for lottery odds, which the Pelicans did to an extent by playing Anthony Davis fewer minutes after last season's NBA trade deadline. This team's ultimate goal was to leave Walt Disney World healthy, which they did. They now have a lottery selection, giving them the chance to move up the draft board and select another player to add to their core.
Pelicans optimistic, yet uncertain road ahead
If we rank young cores on the outside looking in at the playoffs, the Pelicans have the best nucleus in the sport. At the same time, the West is historically stacked.
The Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Utah Jazz, and Dallas Mavericks are powerhouses who aren't going anywhere; while they could make some offseason maneuvers, the Oklahoma City Thunder should, at the very least, be a competitive foe next season; the Portland Trail Blazers have the talent to contend, which they've done in years past.
There are several organizations across the sport with young rosters that they have high expectations for. The Kings, Memphis Grizzlies, and Phoenix Suns have high-octane rosters that could've made the playoffs in the Eastern Conference; the Minnesota Timberwolves get a healthy Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell accompanied by a top-1o draft pick next season.
The San Antonio Spurs showed promise in the bubble, have respected veterans, and are coached by Gregg Popovich. Do you remember the Golden State Warriors? They'll make a casual return next season with a healthy Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
Can we definitively say that the Pelicans are a playoff team next season?
Continuity plays a prominent role in collective growth. It's what helped the Nuggets, Jazz, and Milwaukee Bucks become contenders. Coaching and young players coming in the league with relative proximity of each other is at the heart and soul of such growth. The Pelicans coaching staff did a superb job righting the careers of talented youngsters (Ingram and Ball) and getting rookies on the right path (Williamson and Hayes).
Gentry was part of the team's turnaround, not its demise. Maybe the Pelicans feel he isn't the long-term answer on the sidelines. That said, why would you part ways after his coaching staff's finest work?
There's zero margin for error in the West, and now the Pelicans have to focus on adjusting to a new coaching staff in addition to getting their young players to take the next step.
It's working wonders for the Kings, right?
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