The Purdue Boilermakers host No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions for a Big Ten matchup on Saturday evening. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Penn State-Purdue prediction and pick.
Penn State-Purdue Last Game – Matchup History
Penn State snuck out a win over Purdue 35-31 their last game during the 2022 season. The Nittany Lions escaped a late comeback from current Las Vegas Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell and the Boilermakers.
Overall Series: Penn State leads 16-3-1
Here are the Penn State-Purdue College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Penn State-Purdue Odds
Penn State: -28.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -10000
Purdue: +28.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +2200
Over: 50.5 (-115)
Under: 50.5 (-105)
How to Watch Penn State vs. Purdue
Time: 3:30 ET/12:30 PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why Penn State Could Cover The Spread/Win
James Franklin and his team responded after the tough loss to Ohio State with a dominant win over Washington. The Huskies never stood a chance as the 100,000+ fans wearing all-white impacted their ability to run the offense. The defense shut the Huskies down and allowed only two field goals. Over their last three games, Franklin's defense has allowed just three touchdowns. Time and time again, the Penn State pass rush continues to take over as they had five sacks and nine tackles for loss. Abdul Carter finished with two sacks and four TFLs.
Penn State's game plan will be to pound the rock. They run the ball better than most teams do even on a bad day. They are 30th in the country at 196.2 rush yards per game. Kaytron Allen leads with 133 carries for 634 yards and Nicholas Singleton is right behind him with 88 carries for 543 yards. Singleton is averaging 6.2 yards per carry.
Quarterback Drew Allar just surpassed 2,000 passing yards against Washington. He's thrown for 13 touchdowns with five interceptions. His top weapon is Tyler Warren who is arguably the top tight end in the country. The future first-round pick has caught 59 passes for 681 yards with four touchdowns. He's averaging 11.5 yards per catch and even plays a few snaps under center as the former quarterback can be utilized in trick plays. Harrison Wallace is Allar's next top target as he has emerged as the top wideout. He has 29 catches for 479 yards with two TDs and is averaging 16.5 yards per catch.
Penn State is 4-5 against the spread on the year and 2-7 in over/unders.
Why Purdue Could Cover The Spread/Win
Purdue is the worst team in the conference and as shocking as this sounds, they have yet to reach even 86 points in conference games on the season. Sitting at 162 points overall (mostly from their 47-0 win in Week 1), they are by far the lowest-scoring team in the conference and third worst among Power-4 teams. Only Florida State (133) and Houston (137) have lower point totals. That being said, with how good this Penn State defense is, I would be shocked if they reach the end zone multiple times. Every team has the ability to find the end zone at least once, but considering Washington couldn't, don't be shocked if they only settle for field goals.
The only chance Purdue has at covering this spread is from their defense. Penn State will run the ball. If they can contain it a little, they can keep this within a four-touchdown lead. The issue is they have a horrible defense and have allowed a total of 340 points this year. The fewest amount of points they allowed was to Northwestern in the 26-20 loss in overtime. Ohio State shut them out 45-0 and before that, Oregon shut them out 35-0. Wisconsin beat them 52-6 and so there is no reason why Penn State, who is fighting for a high playoff seed, won't do the same.
Purdue is 2-7 against the spread and 5-4 in over/unders.
Final Penn State-Purdue Prediction & Pick
Penn State should and likely will cover this spread. The only way it doesn't happen is if they turn the ball over in their own territory. It would be smart to buy a point or two to get it fewer than 28.
The best call on the board is the under at 50.5, as these two teams have hit a combined 11 unders on the year. Penn State should win easily by limiting Purdue offensively.
Final Penn State-Purdue Prediction & Pick: Penn State -28.5 (-110), Under 50.5 (-105)
Follow Us
Subscribe
