The Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Dodgers meet for the final time this season in Dodger Stadium on Wednesday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Pirates-Dodgers prediction and pick.
Los Angeles currently stands at 74-46 and is 38-20 at home. If you put $100 on every single Dodgers game so far this season, you’d be down $621 on the moneyline.
Pittsburgh currently stands at 42-78 and is 18-43 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Pirates game so far this season, you’d be down $1,504 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Pirates-Dodgers odds.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Dodgers Odds
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Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+235)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-300)
Over 8.5 Runs (-120)
Under 8.5 Runs (+100)
Why The Dodgers Could Win This Game
At this point, it seems like the Dodgers simply have the Pirates number. Los Angeles has now beat Pittsburgh in 15 straight matchups, dating back all the way to the 2018 season.
15 in a row is surprising for any baseball matchup, but the gap in talent between these two teams has been, and still currently is, immense.
The L.A. bats will look to confirm that tonight against JT. Brubaker, who will take the mound for the Pirates.
After having a very solid start to the season, Brubaker is on a downhill slide. He's allowed 13 earned runs in his last two starts over just 10.0 innings of work. The righty's ERA in the months of July and August is a whopping 8.05.
The Dodgers offense has been scuffling, but Brubaker might be just what the doctor ordered to get the lineup hitting again. Brubaker has been absolutely shelled byt the long ball, allowing 12 homers over his last 34.0 innings. Against a Dodgers lineup that hits the sixth most homers in the league and sees their power numbers go up against righties, we could be in for some fireworks tonight.
Los Angeles will turn to Mitch White to take the bulk of the innings tonight as they continue to deal with starter injuries. White started a bullpen game for the Dodgers last time out, and he's expected to do so tonight.
White has been serviceable in his long relief appearances of late. In his last two appearances, he's gone at least three innings and allowed no more than two earned runs. Not eye-popping stuff, but it should be more than enough to get past the light-hitting Pirates.
Pittsburgh has now scored three or less runs in eight of their last ten games. They have the fifth most strikeouts in the league, and now must go nine innings against a bullpen with the eighth most K's and fourth lowest ERA in the MLB. In all likelihood, this should be another low scoring affair for the Pirates.
Why The Pirates Could Win This Game
While it seems like the Dodgers have dominated teams of late, the matchups are closer than they appear. Los Angeles is only 1-5 on the run line in their last six games, including two one-run wins against the Pirates most recently.
Considering the Dodgers bullpen has now worked 13.1 out of 18 innings this series, it's tough to see how much longer they can keep it up. We saw signs of cracking yesterday when Kenley Jansen allowed a run in the ninth but tightroped his way out of trouble to preserve the win.
Mitch White has yet to pitch over three innings without allowing at least two runs. It would be a surprise to see the Pirates come up empty against him tonight. Add in the fact that they'll get a crack against arms that have been worked all week, and the Pittsburgh bats could surprise people here.
On the mound, the Pirates badly need JT Brubaker to return to the form he displayed earlier in the year. He pitched to a 2.63 ERA the first month of the year, but has fallen off since.
However, in is one appearance against the Dodgers this season, Brubaker soldiered through 4.2 innings of work, allowed three earned runs, struck out six, and walked none. He also did not give up a home run in the appearance.
If Brubaker can replicate this, the Pirates should have a fighting chance in Los Angeles against a weary Dodger ‘pen.
Final Pirates-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
Like for most of this series, the Dodgers are much too high of favorites to risk the rare Pirates upset. As we've seen over the past few days, taking the Dodger run line has not been profitable either. Instead, make a play on the total tonight. The Dodgers should rough up Brubaker early, and the Pirates should be able to scratch across a few runs of their own. Both teams have the chance to snap out of their offensive funk tonight, and expect to see plenty of early runs.
FINAL PIRATES-DODGERS PREDICTION AND PICK: OVER 8.5 RUNS (-120)
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