Tipoff of one of the most significant seasons in Portland Trail Blazers history is barely more than a week away. As they prepare for a brief preseason road trip before opening at home against the Sacramento Kings on October 20th, here are four bold predictions about Damian Lillard and the Blazers for 2021-22.
Blazers Rank Top-2 In Offensive Rating
The Brooklyn Nets were the only team in basketball last season to post a better offensive rating than Portland. Don't expect anything all that different in 2021-22, unless it's the Blazers overtaking Kevin Durant, James Harden and company for the league's most efficient offense.
Remember, Portland scored an eye-popping 118.8 points per 100 possessions last season after acquiring Norman Powell, per NBA.com/stats, not just best in the league over that timeframe but more than a full point better than the Nets' season-long mark. Billups' principles of halfcourt ball and player movement, creasing the paint with the dribble and pushing the ball up the floor to attack early in the shot clock should help the Blazers avoid the dry spells that occasionally plagued them when the offense bogged down under Terry Stotts, too. It wouldn't be at all surprising if Lillard and C.J. McCollum upped their effective field goal percentages while playing a bit more off the ball.
There just isn't an offense in basketball other than Brooklyn's that looks better than Portland's on paper. Maybe Donovan Mitchell takes another step and the Utah Jazz crash the top-two. The Milwaukee Bucks will be playing with the unbridled sense of confidence accompanied by a championship, and replacing P.J. Tucker's minutes could juice their offense all by itself. There's a chance Nikola Jokic's offensive influence ripples even further and Michael Porter Jr. pairs his ruthless efficiency with added usage while the Denver Nuggets wait for Jamal Murray to return.
Still, the safer bet is the Blazers' blend of core continuity and a more variable scheme leading them to the best or second-best offense in basketball.
Larry Nance Jr.'s Role Expands Throughout The Season
It's hard to imagine Nance forcing his way into Portland's starting lineup. That unit was awesome offensively and legitimately stingy on the other end a year ago, and Robert Covington is a better fit next to Jusuf Nurkic than Nance given his superior volume, range and accuracy from three. There could be something to the notion of playing Covington, Nance and Nurkic together, giving the Blazers their ideal amalgam of offensive firepower and defensive mettle, but that's hardly a guarantee, and Norman Powell was no doubt promised a starting role during discussions in free agency with Billups and Neil Olshey.
Being on the floor for tipoff isn't always an accurate indicator of a player's worth to his team, though. Nance has done nothing in training camp and throughout Portland's pair of preseason games to dispel the notion that he's a perfect archetype for how Billups wants to play on both sides of the floor. He's already the Blazers' best ball-mover and point-of-attack helper, and will only grow more comfortable in both capacities the more time he spends on the floor with his new teammates. Nance is also the key to unlocking small-ball lineups that Billups is bound to turn to out of both convenience and necessity. He's on a different level than Nurkic and Cody Zeller as a switch defender, and it's not like either center has a track record of playing full seasons without injury.
Billups could be tempted to play Nance more than he actually does in the season's early going. Portland has made a lot of promises to a lot of players leading up to the regular season, and Nance was on record at Media Day as being comfortable in literally whatever role the Blazers ask him to play. Odds are that's as any other reserve for the first few weeks of 2021-22, before the numbers and eye test support Nance emerging as a proverbial sixth starter. If he can knock down above-break threes at a respectable clip, there's nothing that should prevent Nance from stamping his two-way imprint on this team in a manner that makes him indispensable.
Nassir Little Ends Up Fighting With Tony Snell For Rotation Minutes
Billups and the Blazers have talked a big game about Little's offseason growth and their expectations for him in 2021-22. He was first off the bench in Portland's preseason opener, has been earmarked as this team's designated stopper of superstar wings and is poised to play all of his minutes at forward after briefly being shoehorned into the backcourt last season. Little's length, explosiveness and budding skill make him as theoretically seamless a fit for Billups' offensive and defensive schemes as any player on the roster.
All that said, Little might be entering the regular season under far different parameters if Snell wasn't dealing with a nagging foot injury. The sense of unknown that's largely the source of Little's intrigue doesn't exist with Snell. He's a proven commodity as an automatic standstill shooter and playable if unspectacular defender given his experience and positional size on the wing. Don't be shocked if Billups ultimately defaults to the sure thing for Portland's ninth man, eased by the consistency offered by a veteran like Snell on a nightly basis.
There's no doubt the Blazers would be better off if Little simply beat Snell out. His realistic ceiling for this season as a spot-up shooter, downhill finisher and capable defender of multiple positions would provide Portland some athletic juice and additional lineup flexibility it could really use. Little's lacking overall feel and still-developing jumper, though, mean he's just enough of a game-by-game question mark for Billups to sometimes go with Snell instead.
Both will likely play in the regular season regardless; the real test here will be how the Blazers dole out their minutes come playoff time.
Health Provided, Portland Wins 50 Games
The Blazers' 44.5 over/under from BetOnline is way too low. Barring Lillard missing a significant chunk of the schedule, this team is just too experienced and proven offensively to not beat that relatively low threshold. The additions of Nance and Zeller alone would represent a major improvement defensively even if Portland was still deploying Stotts' ultra-conservative scheme, and every incumbent has sung the praises of Billups' more aggressive, active system even as they've somewhat struggled to implement it during training camp and preseason play.
A quick look around the West reveals just how solid the Blazers seem compared to other teams with surefire postseason expectations. The Nuggets and LA Clippers won't have Murray and Kawhi Leonard until spring, at the earliest, and Klay Thompson will surely take awhile to reacclimate with the Golden State Warriors no matter when he returns from two years away from the game. Russell Westbrook hasn't exactly answered questions about his ability to coexist with LeBron James and Anthony Davis during the preseason. Jason Kidd makes the Dallas Mavericks a wildcard.
The Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans aren't guaranteed to take meaningful steps forward, either. Same goes for the Sacramento Kings. The Jazz and Phoenix Suns are the only teams in the West other than Portland that seem especially stable.
The Blazers have their flaws, obviously, and a playoff ceiling topping out below that of other teams with hopes of winning a title. But an elite offense and even bottom-third defense should be enough for Portland to get to 50 victories, especially considering it won at a 48-win pace last season with an objectively inferior roster. Fingers crossed for health!
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