Liverpool takes the pitch at Anfield in their season home opener on Saturday as they face off against Burnley. It’s time to break down the match for our Premier League odds series and make a Burnley-Liverpool prediction and pick.
Liverpool stands at 1-0 in the brand new season after toppling Norwich City in their first game. They recorded three goals, with Diogo Jota, Roberto Firmino, and Mohamed Salah all finding the back of the net.
Burnley failed to record any points in their first match of the year, falling to Brighton at Turf Moor. James Tarkowski scored their sole goal.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Burnley-Liverpool odds.
Premier League Odds: Burnley-Liverpool Odds
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Liverpool F.C. (-500)
Burnley F.C. (+1,200)
Liverpool F.C. -2 (-105)
Burnley F.C. +2 (-115)
Over 3.5 Goals (+135)
Under 3.5 Goals (-155)
Why Liverpool Could Win This Match
It's been nearly a year and a half since Liverpool has been able to play in front of a full home stadium. You can bet Anfield will be an electric atmosphere as the Reds take on an opponent that is not comparable in talent.
In their first game of the year, Jurgen Klopp's group easily dispatched Norwich, dominating them on both ends. Virgil Van Dijk and Joel Matip paired to thoroughly shut down the Canaries attack, which registered only three shots on goal. Throughout the whole game, Allison was forced to probably only make one or two difficult saves.
On the other end of the pitch, Liverpool looked like the Reds of old. With Sadio Mane and Mo Salah consistently making dangerous runs, Norwich was lucky to escape with only conceding three goals.
The return of Van Dijk has plugged the hole in the middle of the defense that plagued Liverpool all last season, as well as giving them another back that can accelerate their electric offense. With the Dutchman captaining the middle, it's unlikely Burnley, a team that scored the third least goals in the top flight last year, does much damage on Saturday.
Burnley is essentially the same team they were last year, and Liverpool has only gotten stronger. It should show on the pitch.
Why Burnley Could Win This Match
Despite the two clubs polar opposite starts to the season, there is at least a glimmer of hope for Burnley backers for tomorrow's match.
For one, Liverpool's first victory was actually much less dominant than the final score reveals.
Norwich actually slightly edged the Reds in possession, completed more passes, and matched them in pass accuracy. When we look at expected goals, the numbers are even more interesting: Liverpool's xG was only 1.79, while Norwich finished with an xG of 1.33. This game was much closer than expected, and Burnley will look to produce a similar result.
Last year, Sean Dyche's men were very poor at producing in the final third, but tolerable at preventing them. While they scored the third least goals, they allowed the sixth-most.
Burnley typically deploys a 4-4-2 and typically wins games off a physical defensive presence. Their only path to victory on Saturday is to score the first goal (as they did last week, scoring in the second minute) and holding on for dear life. Last season, four of Burnley's ten wins came via a 1-0 score, including a victory over Liverpool.
The road map is there, but it'll be a stretch to see Burnley execute it.
Final Burnley-Liverpool Prediction & Pick
It's almost unimaginable to think that Liverpool falls to a far inferior opponent in their home debut with a nearly fully healthy squad. Even in the best-case scenario for Burnley, they probably lose by one or two goals. I'll back Liverpool to get a boost of energy in front of a raucous Anfield crowd and run the Clarets off the pitch fairly quickly. There's a better chance that we see a 4-0 Liverpool victory than Burnley making this match competitive. Take the Reds in a runaway win.
FINAL BURNLEY-LIVERPOOL PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL F.C. -2 (-105)
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