The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays battle in a matchup of American League East rivals. The Red Sox have won four of seven meetings this season, and five of their last ten games overall. The Rays have won just four of their past ten. Boston had a chance to contend for a playoff spot but they have been falling behind. They are now 12 games back of the division lead and four games back of the wild card. The Rays have been out of the playoff race for most of the season, but have given themselves an outside chance in the wild card race, sitting six games back. They'd likely have to win most of their remaining games. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Rays prediction and pick.
Red Sox-Rays Projected Starters
Cooper Criswell vs. Ryan Pepiot
Cooper Criswell is 6-4 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.
Criswell's last start was on the road against the New York Yankees. He pitched 5 1/3 innings with 4 strikeouts, allowing 4 hits, 3 walks, 1 earned run, and 1 home run. The Red Sox lost the game 2-1 in extra innings, giving Criswell the no-decision. It was Criswell's fifth start of the season after leaving the bullpen.
Criswell is 3-2 on the road with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He has had equal production both on the road and at home.
Ryan Pepiot is 7-5 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.
Pepiot's last start was on the road against the Cleveland Guardians. He pitched 2 innings with 1 strikeout, allowing 4 hits, 2 walks, and 2 earned runs. Despite the quick hook, Pepiot wasn't injured in his last outing, but it raises questions about whether the Rays are trying to manage his workload. He threw only 64 2/3 innings in 2023 and is already up to 115 this season.
Pepiot is 3-3 at home with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Like Criswell, there is no massive difference in his splits at home vs. on the road.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Rays Odds
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+168)
Moneyline: +100
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-205)
Moneyline: -118
Over: 7.5 (-112)
Under: 7.5 (-108)
How to Watch Red Sox vs. Rays
Time: 6:50 PM ET/3:50 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Network, NESN
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Red Sox have been performing well offensively over their past ten games despite not turning them into victories. Boston is hitting .249 with a .322 on-base percentage and 4.7 runs/nine. They've been much better than the Rays over that same span, hitting .225 with a .280 on-base percentage and 2.5 runs/nine.
Criswell has been lights out since becoming a starter. He allowed one or fewer runs in four of his five starts. Criswell's pitch count has been rising in recent games, and he'll have to pitch deep into this one to get the Red Sox the win.
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Red Sox have been hitting well, but their pitching staff is starting to let them down. The Red Sox bullpen has a 6.70 ERA over the past three games. Boston hopes Criswell will be able to hold off the bullpen for a while, but he hasn't pitched more than 5 innings in his transition from reliever to starter.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick
The Rays offense has been so abysmal that the struggling Red Sox bullpen might not be enough to get them going. Criswell has been one of the lone bright spots over the past month and should continue his success in this game.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick: Red Sox ML (+100)
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