Prior to the trade deadline, the Detroit Red Wings locked up captain Dylan Larkin to an eight-year contract extension.
Larkin has been with the organization since being drafted 15th overall by the team in 2014. This season, he leads the team in both goals and points by a wide margin. Larkin's managed 26 goals and 68 points in 71 games, an 82-game pace of 30 goals and 79 points. His deal carries an $8.7 million cap hit, kicking in next season.
Below, we take a look at how Larkin's extension breaks down.
Red Wings' Decision to Extend
While it always seemed Larkin would end up staying in Detroit, the sides waited until just before the trade deadline to sign off. Given the Red Wings opted to sell, there was a small possibility Larkin could've been moved, if there was no extension in place.
At just 26 years old though, Larkin's age matches up perfectly with the Red Wings' timeline to compete. With Detroit just starting to get back into the playoff picture, the forward should have plenty of quality years left.
That's not to mention that as the team's captain, letting him walk as a free agent would only be a more impactful blow. It's been a long time since the team has been competitive and losing their captain in the prime of his career wouldn't generate much faith in fans. Not to mention the team already pulled the plug before the deadline and dealt away other pieces as well.
However, the deal got done and Larkin is set to help lead the team into a new, more successful era.
The Cap Hit
Larkin's $8.7 million per year comes in just about as expected or perhaps a touch lower. Mathew Barzal stands out as one of the more recent comparables and his deal carries a $9.15M cap hit. It wouldn't have been surprising to see Larkin hit $9M per year.
The center's numbers have been consistent over the last two seasons, but that hasn't always been the case. As recently as the 2020-21 season, Larkin scored nine goals and 23 points in 44 games. An 82-game pace of just 17 goals and 43 points, it tells a much different story. Even a year before that in 2019-20, Larkin scored at a pace of 22 goals and 61 points per 82.
At the same time, it's a matter of risk versus reward and an $8.7 million deal is fair value. The Red Wings can't really afford to lose key pieces as they try to continue building a competitive team and keeping Larkin is key to that.
It's also not necessarily a matter of the cap hit right now, so much as it's about the next few years. It's still probably going to be a couple years before the Red Wings are consistently competitors and Detroit really isn't pressed for cap space right now. However, as the team starts competing, having top players on good deals is going to be key. As the cap continues to rise, Larkin's deal will continue to look better and by the time Detroit is truly contending, it should bring very good value.
You can't complain about much with the cap hit, which came in arguably slightly lower than expected.
The Term
A maximum term contract was always expected for Larkin. As a top center, there was just about no chance he'd end up with less term.
In his mid-20s, Larkin shouldn't see a decline for a long time, so there's no threat there in terms of a max-term extension. Again, with Detroit's timeline to compete as well, the hope is likely that within the first few years of this deal, the Red Wings are a consistent playoff team.
The only concern is Larkin's past inconsistency from year to year. He's certainly worth his cap hit when producing at the level he has recently. The question is whether or not he can sustain that production from year to year going forward.
Regardless, the eight-year extension makes sense for both sides and we were likely never going to see it come in any shorter.
No-Trade Clause
Larkin's deal does come with a no-trade clause, but this is nothing new. Larkin already had a full no-trade clause for the final year of his current contract as well, getting the trade protection as soon as he was eligible.
The no-trade clause on his extension will also only exist for the first five years of the contract. For the final three years, it'll drop to a modified no-trade clause. At this point, Larkin will list 10 teams he'd be willing to be traded to.
It seems fairly unlikely that trade protection actually plays any sort of a role here. Detroit is only going to be starting to compete as the deal begins and it's likely we see Larkin play out this contract with the team. At the same time, it does provide the Red Wings with flexibility, if needed.
This is a fair deal for the Red Wings. It was always going to come in with maximum term and the cap hit may even be lower than expected. Larkin is going to be key to the Red Wings competing once again.
Grade: B+
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