The Cincinnati Reds (24-29) travel to the Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (28-25) in the first game of a three game set. Check out our MLB odds series as we give you a Reds-Red Sox prediction and pick while letting you know how to watch, as well.
The Reds are coming off a weeekend sweep in Chicago against the Cubs. They have won four of their last five games and sit in third place in the NL Central. Cincinnati has been destroying the baseball as of late. In their last six games, the Reds are batting .348 with 29 extra base hits. Jonathan India and Matt McLain have two home runs each in that span while Spencer Steer has a home run, as well. The Reds have a .929 OPS in their last week of games as their offense has scored almost seven runs a game in that span. On the mound, the Reds have a 4.90 ERA this season. Hunter Greene leads the team starting pitchers in ERA (4.80) and strikeouts (80).
Boston is fourth in the AL East, but they do play in the toughest division in baseball. The Red Sox are a much better home team as they are 15-11 at home and 13-14 on the road. Boston is in a little bit of a slump at the plate. In their last five games (one week), the Red Sox are batting .226 and scoring less than three runs a game. Connor Wong and Triston Casas are hitting .400 in the last week while Alex Verdugo is batting .313. On the mound, the Red Sox have a 4.68 ERA this season. Chris Sale is their best starter as he leads the team in ERA (4.72), strikeouts (65), and wins (5). Kenley Jansen has 11 saves in 14 opportunities this season.
Ben Lively and Brayan Bello will be the starting pitchers in this game.
Here are the Reds-Red Sox MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Red Sox Odds
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-128)
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+106)
Over: 9.5 (-120)
Under: 9.5 (-102)
How To Watch Reds vs. Red Sox
TV: Bally Sports Ohio, NESN
Stream: MLB TV Subscription
Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10 PM PT
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Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
Lively has been pitching well this season. He has made two starts for the Reds and has pitched 11 2/3 innings as a starter. In those innings, Lively has allowed four runs on seven hits while owning an ERA of 3.08. He also has 16 strikeouts to just three walks as a starter this season. Lively has been a big ground ball pitcher this season and he will need to continue to do that against the Red Sox. Boston is top-10 in batting average this season and they can showcase some power if opposing pitchers are not careful. However, with Lively's ground ball rate and his ability to command the zone, he should be able to help the Reds cover the spread.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Bello has a 4.08 ERA in seven starts this season. However, he does have an above average strikeout rate, whiff percentage and fastball velocity. Bello will need to get a lot of whiffs and chases out of the zone if the Red Sox want to cover the spread. The Reds have the worst hard hit percentage and average exit velocity in all of baseball this season. Cincinnati also ranks in the bottom-3 in xBA and xSLG. The Reds do not hit the ball very well on the whole season, so Bello does have a decent matchup in this one.
Final Reds-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
I am going to ride the hot hand in this one. Although the Reds are 5-5 in their last 10, they are also 4-1 in their last five. Cincinnati is tearing the cover off the ball and Bello allows his fair shair of hard hits. Expect the Reds to keep this one close and cover the spread.
Final Reds-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Reds +1.5 (-128), Over 9.5 (-120)
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