Since Ryan Tannehill's arrival in Tennessee in 2019, the Titans have had no concerns about his performance throughout the regular season. He already has three postseason appearances and a 30-13 overall record. His pass attempts increased somewhat last season (531 vs. 481) due to Derrick Henry's injury, but Tannehill's capacity for big plays decreased over the previous two years (9.6 vs. 7.9 vs. 7.0 yards per attempt since 2019). In just two games, he passed for more than 300 yards. In his other twelve starts, though, Tannehill managed just 225 yards. He did increase his fantasy value with his run game scoring.
In one-QB leagues, however, fantasy managers are unlikely to start Ryan Tannehill. This is due to the veteran's slump in 2021. Take note that last year, he managed to score 20 or more fantasy points in just five out of his seventeen games. Remember, too, that Derrick Henry was on the field in only three of those matches.
But that's just a small part of the issue with Tannehill. This coming season, his downfield targets have changed, especially with A.J. Brown no longer around. Instead, Tannehill will try to rely on rookie Treylon Burks. Tannehill also has seasoned players Robert Woods and Austin Hooper arriving in town to shore up the receiving corps. Although their arrivals could spread out the targets, it doesn't do much to help Ryan Tannehill reclaim his position as a top-tier quarterback in fantasy football.
Ryan Tannehill got on Kyle Phillips for not running the right route early in practice last week. He went back to him on a similar route later successfully. That's helping develop trust in the rookie already. #Titans. pic.twitter.com/RvBiOigl1T
— TURRON DAVENPORT (@TDavenport_NFL) August 8, 2022
Ryan Tannehill's 2022 fantasy football outlook
When Ryan Tannehill is at his best, he frequently outperforms many other QBs. After ranking eighth in 2020, he ended up as the 13th in quarterback scoring (323.90) in four-point scoring leagues last year.
Another thing to consider is that the Titans don't frequently pass to their running backs. Meanwhile as good as he is, Robert Woods recently underwent ACL surgery. That might mean Woods will be limited somewhat.
Having said that, Tannehill should still amass 4,000 total yards and 25–30 touchdowns this coming season. He will need to work on his consistency, though. As things stand, Tannehill is the 20th-ranked quarterback in the early NFFC draft season.
Tannehill just regressed in 2021 after having success in his first two seasons. In 2019 and 2020, he was buoyed by terrific and effective red zone offense. Last year, that just didn't happen as often as he wanted.
Tannehill also recorded poor performances in terms of passing yards (16th), air yards (18th), yards per attempt (19th), passing touchdowns (16th), and fantasy points per game (14th). Take note as well that Tannehill's situation won't improve with the debut of rookie quarterback Malik Willis. The good news for Tannehill, however, is that preliminary data suggests Willis poses no immediate danger to his position as the starting quarterback.
Prospective fantasy football owners must have confidence that Tannehill can regain his 2019–2020 form. That's when he averaged 9.6 and 7.9 yards per attempt and controlled incredibly effective touchdown rates of 7.7% and 6.9%. Given that Derrick Henry will once again be the focal point of the Titans' attack, Tannehill's fantasy performance mostly depends on effectiveness rather than volume. Tannehill has already shown the capacity to be a hyper-efficient NFL QB. If he can repeat similar performances in 2022, he will once again be a streaming option in single-QB lineups.
With Mike Vrabel in charge and Derrick Henry in the backfield, the Titans will always be a run-first team. As such, Tannehill doesn't have favorable odds of seeing his workload rise until the Titans are consistently down.
Ryan Tannehill shares expectations, excitement for 2022 season with @TitansAmie
📺: Back Together Saturday coverage all day long on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/Wbs3k04bmN
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) July 30, 2022
The second cause for concern with Tannehill is the rest of his team. Henry has returned, but A.J. Brown and Julio Jones have both left. The offense is not terrible, but they did lose a ton of talent and production right there. Consequently, don't expect Tannehill to match his passing stats on long throws in 2022 due to a smaller pool of wideouts.
Tannehill has already shown the ability to be a valuable fantasy quarterback. Going into 2022, though, he has a number of issues that make a QB1 finish doubtful. Overall, Tannehill will most likely fall into the category of average QB2s. Additionally, he might only be consistently relevant in leagues with several quarterbacks picks per team.
In one-QB leagues, Tannehill is actually likely to go undrafted. In two-QB and Superflex formats, however, the situation is different. Pundits consider him a good value pick at Round 6.
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