One week ago the San Francisco 49ers appeared dead in the water. Losers of two straight, and coming off the heels of an embarrassing 43-17 clobbering by the lowly Miami Dolphins, Kyle Shanahan's group was suffering not only from a plethora of injuries, but an offense no longer able to stretch the field.
What a difference a week makes.
Following the Niners' victory over the Los Angeles Rams in primetime, San Francisco finds itself not only catapulted back into the divisional race, but paced with an offense that looks in rhythm for the first time all season. Playing against a New England Patriots squad that finds themselves on their back heel Sunday afternoon, the Niners will have another opportunity to make up ground following their early season swoon.
Here are our four bold predictions for the San Francisco 49ers in week 7.
1. San Francisco's offense will gain at least two plays of 25-plus yards
Having ended the 2019 season ranked seventh in offensive DVOA–a stat developed by Pro Football Focus, that gauges a team's effectiveness compared to the rest of the league–the 49ers start to the 2020 campaign had been marred by an inconsistent scoring unit. Reaching their nadir two weeks ago against the aforementioned Dolphins, in which they gained a mere 250 total yards, San Francisco struggled to move the ball downfield with the play-action attack that worked so well last season. Having used the play-type with the third most frequency in the league last season, while gaining an average of 10.8 yards-per-play, per Pro Football Reference, the first six weeks of this year, has seen San Francisco gain nearly 3 yards less on the same play.
Though an injury to starting 49ers running back Raheem Mostert can at least be partially to blame for the loss of effectiveness, there remains ample debate among some as to whether a good running back is necessary to trick linebackers into the fake.
Regardless of whether or not this is true, Shanahan Sunday night, pivoted away and instead used a variety of short-routes and slants in an attempt to get Garoppolo into rhythm. Utilizing tight end George Kittle far more than he has in the past, the 49ers used the middle of the field, while receivers ran deep-routes that in the past would have served as the primary target. An adjustment for a quarterback that has struggled with deep-reads and overthrowing wideouts all season, the pivot seems to be temporary however.
While Jimmy G seemed to have benefited from the switch in emphasis–throwing 3 touchdowns on a tidy 23-for-33 performance–make no mistake that the Niners want to get back to their aggressive style of stretching the field. Now that their QB seems to have his confidence back, look for San Francisco to switch the action we saw Sunday night, with Kittle diving towards the middle as a diversion, while Garoppolo targets his receivers downfield. Though the action may look slightly different than it did last season, the results should be similar for the aggressive 49ers.
2. 49ers' turnover ratio will improve
Featuring a unit that proved adept at forcing turnovers, the Niners' ability to control the football was an integral part of their success last season. Providing prime field position for an offense that didn't overwhelm opponents with talent, allowed San Francisco to maintain a high level of efficiency that made them and head coach Kyle Shanahan the darling of the analytic community.
Not only have they struggled to force as many takeaways this season–ranking in the bottom half of the league in that category–the 49ers have combined that subpar effort with a prevalence for turning the ball over. Should they hope to contend in the crowded NFC West their minus-1 turnover differential will have to improve.
Thankfully for the 49ers, the New England Patriots might be the perfect team to begin that improvement.
Already ranking near the bottom of the NFL with 10 lost possessions, the Patriots lack of offensive weapons around Cam Newton will be readily apparent, as the former-MVP will struggle against a San Francisco. Still recovering from a diagnosis of Covid-19, its fair to wonder how mobile Newton will be, an aspect of his game New England has increasingly become dependent upon. Should he be compromised, expect to see the 49ers apply heavy pressure, as the Patriots quarterback is forced to throw into tight windows.
3. Jerick McKinnon will gain over 100 yards
There's no denying the loss of Mostert is a costly one for the 49ers. Not only was the running back's speed a critical weapon for the Niners' offense, but his presence was integral to the play-action sets San Francisco loves, as discussed above. Yet, while McKinnon may lack the breakaway speed of Mostert, the back has proven capable of contributing to the offense in a big way. Looking for what would be his third straight game with at least 75-yards from scrimmage, McKinnon should receive plenty of carries as Shanahan will look to get the Patriot linebackers to bite on the run fake, on the team's deep routes that are sure to come.
Working with an offensive-line that has proven capable of creating holes for the running game, the 49ers don't need McKinnon to be Mostert, they simply need him to be productive enough that their rest of their offense can function. Expect the sixth-year veteran to clear that low-bar.
4. The 49ers will win, 24-14
The 49ers know that among all the stats and records that the New England Patriots have accrued over the last 18 years in which Bill Belichick has reigned over the organization, the simple fact that the team has never experienced a three-game losing streak might the most impressive of them all. While other organizations have undergone rebuilding phases, or simply encountered bad-injury luck, the Patriots' ability to cultivate the type of depth that has helped them avoid such a losing streak has been, simply put, astounding.
That streak will come to an end Sunday afternoon however.
Facing the quarterback they jettisoned for second-round pick, the Patriots will be forced to counter an offense suddenly on the rise, while attempting to jumpstart one that lacks the type of blue-chip talent they've grown accustomed to. Unable to put the ball in the endzone consistently, and lined up against a defense capable of stealing the football, the Patriots will fall two games under .500, while the 49ers will continue to assert themselves back into the postseason race.
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