The Seattle Seahawks snuck into the playoffs as the seventh and final seed in the NFC in the last week of action, putting an exclamation point on a wildly successful 2022 campaign. The Seahawks were supposed to be rebuilding after trading away star quarterback Russell Wilson last offseason, but instead, ended up making it into the playoffs instead.
The problem for the Seahawks is that they draw a tough matchup in the Wild Card round, as they will have to take on the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners finished the 2022 season on a ten-game win streak, despite being forced to roll with their third-string quarterback in Brock Purdy after their second-string quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a foot injury.
Considering both teams are from the NFC West, they have already faced off twice this season, with San Fran winning both contests. The Seahawks are going to be heavy underdogs in this game, and for good reason, but you can't count any team out in the playoffs. Seattle is going to need a lot to go their way if they want to win, so let's take a look at this key X-Factor who could be the difference between moving onto the Divisional Round, and heading home for the offseason for the Seahawks in this game.
Seahawks X-Factor vs. 49ers: D.K. Metcalf
You couldn't really be blamed for labeling Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith as the key X-Factor in this game. Smith has come back down to earth a bit over the second half of the season, as he's begun turning the ball over more frequently, and he's also struggled in his two meetings against the 49ers this season. If Smith has a big game, the Seahawks will have a shot at winning.
Nobody is saying that isn't true, but in order for Smith to have a big day, he's going to need his top wide receiver to step up and produce as well. Smith is lucky to have a pair of top targets at his disposal in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but in order for Seattle to win, it feels like Metcalf is going to have to have a big day in the air for the Seahawks.
Metcalf put together a strong season (90 REC, 1048 YDS, 6 TD), but he had some fairly pedestrian performances along the way. Metcalf failed to reach 40 receiving yards in six games this year, and while the threat of him ripping off big plays looms large, that simply isn't good enough for a player of his caliber.
The Seahawks have a matchup advantage everytime Metcalf lines up, though, and if they want to win, they are going to have to take advantage of that. Metcalf has the physicality to win one-on-one matchups against anyone in the 49ers secondary, as nobody really matches his 6'5, 235 pound frame. Charvarius Ward and Tashaun Gipson will likely be tasked with slowing down Metcalf, but they both aren't necessarily ideal candidates to cover him.
Metcalf is the key to unlocking Seattle's offense in this game. Typically, he will play on the outside, in which case Ward will likely find himself matched up against him, with potential safety help coming in as well. And while Ward has had a strong season playing as a physical outside cornerback, he's at a disadvantage against Metcalf if he's left alone against him.
The other potential option involves sliding Metcalf into the slot and letting him go to work in the middle of the field. If Metcalf can't get going on the outside, the Seahawks can't be shy in moving him to the slot while leaving Lockett on the outside. Metcalf has big-play abilities, but on got-to-have-it third downs, getting him into space in the middle of the field makes a lot of sense.
The problem here is that the Niners have a lot of capable players who can watch the middle of the field, whether it be do-it-all safety Talanoa Hufanga or star linebacker Fred Warner. Getting space against them is easier said than done. But then again, preventing Metcalf from getting open on these underneath plays is difficult as well.
The Seahawks haven't done a great job getting Metcalf involved in every game they have played this season, but they absolutely have to find a way to do it in this game. The 49ers defense is extremely good, and if the Seahawks fall behind early, they are going to be in trouble.
Metcalf is the guy who can keep the chains moving on offense, which would then open up the Niners secondary and allow Seattle to pull off some big plays. It's already been a wildly successful season for the Seahawks, but if they want to make even more noise in the playoffs, they are going to have to get Metcalf involved early and often, or else they will end up losing to San Francisco for the third time this season.