The Ottawa Senators have been in a rough spot as an organization for quite a few years. Since their run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017, they've missed the playoffs in each of the last four seasons and look set to be on the outside looking in once again this year.
Despite this, there's certainly reason for excitement around the franchise, between the young core they've assembled and the prospects who have yet to make the jump to the NHL.
The Senators are quietly building what could end up being one of the league's best forward groups a little ways down the road. The team's top three forwards in Drake Batherson, Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk are all 23 years old or younger and will make up half of the team's top-six group for the foreseeable future. Batherson has an outstanding 28 points in 24 games this season, while Norris has already registered 14 goals in 28 games this year and Brady Tkachuk has 12 goals and 22 points in 26 games as well.
After those three, you can factor in Tim Stutzle to be another key member of the team's top-six group for a very long time. The team's third-overall pick in the 2020 draft hasn't been producing at quite the same rate but at just 19 years old, he's still on pace for more than 40 points this season. Then while Connor Brown is now 27 years old and will be a free agent in about 18 months, he's also produced at a rate of 51 points per 82 games since joining the Senators. There's certainly a chance he's extended again in 2023, meaning the Senators could have as many as five members of their future top-six group already in place.
While Colin White likely isn't long-term top-six material, he's also a decent middle-six option and is still just 24 years old. Then factor in other prospects like Tyler Boucher, Alex Formenton, Ridly Greig, Roby Jarventie, Shane Pinto and Egor Sokolov, and the Senators should be set with a very strong forward group in the coming years.
On defense, Thomas Chabot will be a pillar for a long time to come while Artem Zub has emerged as an important member of the defense group as well. Chabot is already signed long-term, while Zub is still just 26 years old and could stick around for many years.
That's a good place to start for a long-term defense group, before you look at the defense prospects within the organization. Jake Sanderson, the team's 2020 fifth-overall pick, is almost surely a lock to take the remaining spot on the left side of the top-four. Additionally, 2019 19th overall pick Lassi Thomson has already been getting into NHL action with the Senators and other former first-round picks in Erik Brannstrom and Jacob Bernard-Docker could be long-term members of the defense group as well. At 23 years old, Victor Mete has potential within the organization as well.
Goaltending, however, has been a huge issue for the Senators. After acquiring Matt Murray from the Pittsburgh Penguins in October 2020, it seemed as though Ottawa's goaltending situation would be more stable. Murray was a two-time Stanley Cup champion and despite him coming off a down year, the Senators locked him up to a four-year contract. His tenure with the Senators has been nothing short of a disaster though, posting an .891 save percentage in 34 games since being acquired by the team and even clearing waivers this year, then spending a period of time in the AHL.
Others have tried to step in for Murray but have struggled as well. Filip Gustavsson, was great in a stint with Ottawa last season, managing a .933 save percentage in nine games – but this season, he's posted Murray-level numbers with a .893 save percentage in 11 games. Anton Forsberg, on the other hand, can provide decent goaltending when called upon but he's far from starting goalie material.
The netminders certainly aren't helped by the fact that the Senators are currently giving up the fifth-most shots per game in the league and are tied for the fifth-worst expected goals for percentage of any NHL team, according to NaturalStatTrick.com. That said, when a team is averaging an .897 save percentage from their goalies, results usually aren't going to be great.
Gustavsson is still just 23 years old and could end up working out with the Senators long-term but another name to know is Mads Sogaard. The netminder was selected 37th overall in 2019 and at just 21 years old, Sogaard has posted a .915 save percentage in 11 AHL games this season. So even though the team's situation in net could have the most uncertainty of any area, they still have some options.
While the Senators are likely to miss the playoffs once again, it shouldn't be long before this team is competing to get back into the postseason. There's too much talent both on the roster and within the team's prospect pool to remain a bottom dweller for long and we can expect Ottawa to start making a push up the Atlantic Division standings in the next year or two. The worst of the rebuild is over and now it's a matter of waiting for players to continue stepping into the lineup and then making an impact.
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