The Toronto Raptors knew what they were getting into when they acquired Kawhi Leonard in a blockbuster trade with the San Antonio Spurs over the summer.
Yes, they were getting a superstar. Yes, they were getting a former Finals MVP. Yes, they were improving their team.
But they were also getting a player who had one year left on his contract and refused to commit beyond this season.
The moment the Raptors traded for Leonard, everyone pretty much assumed he would be a one-year rental. It has seemed like a shoo-in for quite some time that Kawhi will eventually be heading to sunny California, and deep down, even Toronto fans understood that.
Of course, circumstances have changed a bit. Now, Leonard apparently wants nothing to do with playing for the Los Angeles Lakers and would instead prefer to join the Los Angeles Clippers, who will have massive cap room this summer and, as a result, will have the ability to sign two max players. So, pair with Leonard with the star of your choice. Kevin Durant? Jimmy Butler?
In a way, that is kind of good news for the Raptors, as it is basically one less Los Angeles team on which Leonard has his sights.
But can Toronto really have any confidence whatsoever that Leonard will do what Paul George did last offseason, when he re-upped with the Oklahoma City Thunder when most expected him to sign elsewhere?
This became more of a discussion on Friday night, when George's Thunder topped Leonard's Raptors. George even said that he talked with Leonard about his decision to stay in Oklahoma City, but he kept what was actually said private.
So, could Leonard actually follow in George's footsteps and spurn Hollywood to stay in a much less romanticized media market?
Let me just start by saying this: none of us really know. Only Leonard knows what is going on, and there is a chance that even he doesn't know what he is going to do come July.
The question you have to ask yourself is whether or not the Raptors represent the best possible option for Leonard moving forward in terms of winning championships, providing a stable environment and for business opportunities.
Here is the problem for Toronto: the title window is not exactly huge. With Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka both aging, the Raptors don't have the luxury of having multiple years to try to win championships with their current core.
Lowry is clearly on the decline, and while Ibaka has had a solid season, he is not even remotely close to the player he was during his prime with the Thunder.
Taking that into consideration, the Raptors would have to bank on signing free agents or making a trade for another superstar, and the city of Toronto is not exactly a marquee destination for big-name players.
Think about it: when has a star player ever signed with the Raptors? You can make the argument that Leonard's presence would change some minds, but that hasn't exactly worked for other stars in smaller markets in previous years.
Just ask Kevin Garnett during his tenure with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Or LeBron James in his first go-around with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
If Toronto could guarantee Leonard that he would be consistently contending for championships over the next five-plus years if he re-signed with the Raptors, then maybe he would be more open to staying, but Toronto can't really do that.
As far as a stable environment? The Raps can probably provide that for Leonard, as Masai Ujiri is a terrific executive, and Leonard genuinely seems to trust the staff, but that is a very small duck in a very long row of ducks that need to be in order to convince Kawhi to re-up.
That brings us to business opportunities.
These days, it's all about exposure and brand deals, and, no disrespect to Toronto at all, but you are simply not going to get that by playing for the Raptors. The Lakers? Sure. The Clippers? It's LA, so yeah. The New York Knicks? Absolutely. But Toronto?
It's also not like Leonard has the personality where he would be a draw no matter where he plays, so if he truly wants to maximize his business potential, then he needs to play in a larger media market.
We know by now that Leonard is mercurial. He doesn't really talk, so it's hard to ever know what is truly on his mind. We know he is a stud on the court, but we know little to nothing about his personal life.
So, again, all we can do at this point is make educated guesses, and I'm not sure we can just say, “Well, Paul George stayed, so Kawhi will, too.”
We aren't going to know for sure until July, but I'm sure everyone and their goldfish knows for sure where Leonard is headed, right?
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