It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a South Alabama-Ole Miss prediction and pick. Find out how to watch South Alabama-Ole Miss.
While some of college basketball's heavyweights went at each other over the weekend, a big upset almost occurred this past Friday night. Ole Miss fell behind early against Grambling, then carved out a modest working margin midway through the second half, and then had to hang on at the very end to win by only one basket, 66-64. It was a very shaky performance for a team which is expected to make the NCAA Tournament this season under coach Chris Beard.
Ole Miss simply could not shoot against Grambling. It hit only 35 percent of its field goal attempts, only 23 percent of its 3-point shots. The final numbers on the Rebels' 3-point shooting: 6 of 26. They were brutal.
Keep in mind that Ole Miss did allow just 64 points. The Rebels' defense was actually very good. They also forced 22 turnovers. Given that high number of forced turnovers, one would have thought that Ole Miss would have gotten easy layups in transition. Yet, those turnovers did not lead to a lot of fast-break baskets. Going up against a physically inferior opponent, one would have thought that Ole Miss would be able to get right to the rim and finish layups or dunks. It was a weird game in which Ole Miss played solid defense against a mid-major opponent but still could not impose its will. It could be that the escape against Grambling was just a one-off and not an indicator of any long-term problems, but in November, college basketball teams can and do go through a lot of growing pains. This game against South Alabama might tell us if Ole Miss is immersed in a deep crisis, or if those growing pains shown against Grambling were only very temporary and will not persist for the Rebels this season. Chris Beard definitely hopes the latter scenario is the one which matches the truth of the matter.
Here are the South Alabama-Ole Miss College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: South Alabama-Ole Miss Odds
South Alabama: +17.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +1200
Ole Miss: -17.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -3000
Over: 148.5 (-110)
Under: 148.5 (-110)
How to Watch South Alabama vs Ole Miss
Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN Plus
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why South Alabama Will Cover The Spread/Win
The spread is huge for an Ole Miss team which barely won outright as a double-digit favorite versus Grambling last weekend. Ole Miss could not shoot 3-pointers, making a very small percentage on a fairly high volume of shot attempts. If Ole Miss continues to fail to make 3-pointers, it is unlikely to cover the spread, not only because missed shots represent empty possessions, but also because a team trying to cover a 17.5-point spread probably needs to shoot well from 3-point range to boost its margin of victory over the course of 40 minutes. If Ole Miss isn't splashing threes, it will cover the spread only if it makes a ton of free throws. That could happen, but it's not something you want to bank on. It would make more sense to bet on Ole Miss if the Rebels' offense was more reliable. We don't know if it is. That's why the Ole Miss-Grambling game was instructive — it should make bettors lean to South Alabama covering the spread.
Why Ole Miss Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Rebels aren't going to shoot under 25 percent from 3-point range for a second straight game. If they hit at least 35 percent of their threes, they will probably score enough to cover. Think 80-60 or 85-62.
Final South Alabama-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick
Our lean is to South Alabama, but Ole Miss could certainly shoot a lot better than it did versus Grambling. Pass on this game.
Final South Alabama-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick: South Alabama +17.5