Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks are for real. The Milwaukee Bucks learned that the hard way after they crumbled down the stretch of Game 1.
Nobody expected the Hawks to beat the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round. With the Sixers featuring stars that have been tested in multiple playoff series in the past, the young Atlanta side was just supposed to give them a scare and then roll over. They'd go into the offseason motivated by their brutal playoff loss and use that as bulletin board material for next year. But they shocked the world and took Game 7, anyway.
The difference between the Sixers and the Bucks here is that Philadelphia has a clear scapegoat. Ben Simmons' late-game performance, or lack thereof, has been the object of NBA Twitter's ire ever since the final buzzer sounded on the 76ers. The memes and clownery came hot and heavy, and for good reason. They enter the offseason with major question marks, but at least there's a clear problem that needs fixing. The Bucks have no such excuse.
The Bucks can't afford to lose to the Hawks
Milwaukee has their franchise player in Giannis Antetokounmpo firing on all cylinders. The Greek Freak posted 34 points and 12 rebounds in Game 1, making 14 of 25 shots to get there. He's played like a 2-time MVP thus far this postseason, averaging 28.8 points, 13.6 rebounds, and 5.1 assists through his first 11 contests. The fact that he signed his massive long-term extension also eliminates the narrative of his looming exit from Milwaukee.
The Bucks also inked their third star in Jrue Holiday to a lengthy extension as well. The point guard matched Giannis shot for shot in Game 1, with 33 big points of his own on an identical 14-for-25 shooting clip.
Milwaukee's Big 3 is locked up for the foreseeable future, with Khris Middleton's player option for the 2023-24 season being the first early out among their stars. While this is mostly a good thing for a team that's expected to contend for a title every year, it also means that they've capped their ceiling.
This Bucks team has to be good enough to win the NBA championship. That's the absolute bottom line. Milwaukee has been gifted the perfect storm this season, with title favorites in the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers getting ravaged by injuries. All that stands between them and their chance at a title is the team that didn't even manage a top four seed.
This isn't to disrespect what the Hawks are doing at all. Trae Young has turned into a surefire superstar with the entire NBA world watching him. Their team is young, feisty, and talented enough to beat the Bucks in a seven game series if things break right for them the rest of the way. Game 1 proves exactly that. But the difference here is that the nobody will fault the Hawks for faltering later on in the series at all.
Atlanta is already playing with house money, and have made their capital back five times over with extra cash to spare. Just like the Sixers, they'll have their own adjustments they can make when they get back in the lab in the offseason.
Their two prized lottery picks in Cam Reddish and Deandre Hunter are both non-factors in these Eastern Conference Finals. Developing those two or shipping them off for more win-now talent could propel them to even greater heights next year. Kris Dunn was also a solid addition they made that they were unable to integrate to their rotation due to ankle surgery. Heck, Bogdan Bogdanovic isn't even playing at full strength. Maybe they do a sign-and-trade with free agent to be John Collins if they don't win the title. Kevin Huerter has upped his trade value as well. The Atlanta Hawks can only get better from here.
The Milwaukee Bucks have no such luxury. They've painted themselves into a corner with win-now moves and a dearth of young talent left on their roster. Their only true asset remaining is Donte DiVincenzo, who isn't even playing in these playoffs due to injury. If they can't even get past the Atlanta Hawks, then the Bucks might be squandering their best chance at a championship with Giannis Antetokounmpo.
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