Clinging to a one-point lead with less than 25 seconds to play in overtime, the Philadelphia 76ers needed a bucket so they turned to their franchise centerpiece and trusty steed, Joel Embiid.
The second-year center backed down his counterpart Al Horford and took two dribbles, attempting to carve deeper position inside. Horford, a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, didn't budge. Stonewalled, Embiid pick up the ball and hesitated for a moment, perhaps scanning the floor for an open teammate. Then, he elevated for a fadeaway jumper that clanked off the back rim:
That errant shot was emblematic of Embiid's playoff run, particularly his experience against the Celtics big man tandem of Horford and Aron Baynes. The Celtics' duo have held Embiid to 28-of-64 shooting as the primary defenders during the Eastern Conference Semifinals. During the regular season, Embiid averaged 0.97 points per possession on 9.4 post-ups per game, tied with LaMarcus Aldridge for the most post-up possessions a night and ranking in the 75th percentile.
The postseason has served as a dramatic wakeup call for the man dubbed “The Process.” Through five games, he's produced just 0.78 points on 41 post-up possessions (as of May 4), which ranks in the 22nd percentile. This statistic from ESPN's Zach Lowe is even more telling of his struggles:
Joel Embiid post-ups vs Boston, via @SecondSpectrum: 0.533 points per play when Embiid shots, or teammate one pass away does; 0.66 points per possession on all trips featuring an Embiid post-up. A lot of 3-0 lies there.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) May 6, 2018
As the 76ers head into Game 4 trailing 3-0, they'll need to find more creative looks for Embiid in the post and overall, especially considering the inherently inefficient nature of post-ups.
Embiid's inefficiency shouldn't be entirely placed on his shoulders. He's certainly honed in on some tunnel vision and forced shots, but too often the Sixers have dumped the ball into the post and simply expected a profitable return. There's been an over-reliance on his post-up possessions as his four teammates turn into bystanders, making it seem as though any Average Joe could slip on a jersey and perform the same duties:
In the opening clip, with all four off-ball defenders keyed on Embiid, demonstrating the gravity he exudes in the post, any sort of motion or screening would have likely sparked an open shot. While Dario Saric is open in the corner, the angle for delivering a pass is difficult, highlighting the need for some sort of movement around the arc.
Although it hasn't materialized much this series, Embiid has shown the ability to find cutters who capitalize when the defense is stretched thin, which opens up creases in the middle of the floor:
Against an elite defensive unit like the Celtics, many of the plays shown above won't work as they're largely the product of defensive breakdowns or off-ball defenders simply falling asleep. But Embiid can't be relied upon to score on every post-up possession. There has to be some action that keeps Boston honest and eliminates the predictability of those possessions.
Ersan Ilyasova and T.J. McConnell have both scored easy buckets as the result of cutting inside while Embiid posts up. On the second clip, note the simple back-pick Saric sets as well as the fact that Marcus Morris doesn't switch onto McConnell. Instead, he stays in position to help against Embiid:
The issue, though, is that cuts can clog up the lane and make it easy for the Celtics to double-team Embiid and force turnovers if he doesn't feed it to his teammate early enough. However, with a litany of shooters in the Sixers rotation, screens and motion around the arc may be Philadelphia's best option, especially if Embiid can display the patience to let plays develop.
It can even be as simple as relocating on the perimeter when the Celtics double in the post (although, that's been a rare occurrence), making the passing angle easier for Embiid:
While cutting and screening are ways to alleviate some of the burden for Embiid, the Sixers still need his shot creation and scoring. Baynes has been able to match Embiid's muscle, sapping some of his post-up proficiency. Embiid has found success when the Sixers involve Baynes in screens, freeing him for scores and utilizing the advantage he holds over Baynes with his quickness.
Against both Horford and Baynes, the key has seemingly been finding ways to create separation for Embiid. Philadelphia has done so with fake dribble handoffs, pick and rolls and pick and pops while sprinkling in a few other wrinkles along the way:
Many of those actions involved shooters, whose magnetism forced the defense to stay attached at the hip. Any hesitation or confusion between Celtic defenders allowed Embiid to spring free and launch in-rhythm jumpers or get downhill all the way to the rim.
On post-ups or ISOs, quick hitters have been Embiid's best form of attack, particularly against Baynes, who can't match his quickness and footwork inside:
Note how most of those possessions begin with Embiid operating farther away from the basket, allowing him to employ his speed as a potent weapon. If he were to begin squarely on the low block, it's far more difficult for his quickness to serve as a boon against Baynes.
For most of the regular season, the post-up was a consistent and reliable option for Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers. Come playoff time, though, its effectiveness has plummetted while the Sixers peer over the edge of the cliff, on the brink of elimination.
Finding sustained success for Embiid against the Celtics' stingy defense hasn't been, and won't be, easy. Embiid must be better; his teammates must do more; the coaching staff must channel their inner Pablo Picasso and get more creative with their offensive schemes.
Despite existing in an unenviable 3-0 hole, this young, uber-talented Sixers club has been given a valuable learning experience during the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Now, as they continue to inch closer toward their championship aspirations over the next few years, they must adapt and find ways to ensure their superstar center can remain dominant during the postseason.
All stats and videos via NBA.com, 3Ball and YouTube and are accurate as of May 6 unless otherwise noted.
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