Sometimes a person is forced to eat crow. That was my first thought when I heard the news that future Hall of Fame outfielder Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels had agreed to a 12-year, nearly $430 million deal.

Two weeks ago, I laid out the case for trading Trout before the 2019 trade deadline. I believed that the Angels had little chance of re-signing Trout long-term. Faced with losing him, I argued that the Angels needed to get everything they could from a trade partner. Seeing Trout sign as a free agent with the Philadelphia Phillies or New York Yankees while getting nothing in return was unacceptable. It still is.

I also harbored serious concerns about a long-term deal after the debacle that was the current Albert Pujols contract. Pujols never measured up to his massive deal, which has hamstrung the Angels for years. Those concerns still linger, but given the details of the Trout contract, I'm glad I was wrong in my assessment that the Angels probably couldn't keep him.

Investing in the present and future

The Angels clearly convinced Trout that they have a long-term plan. It's been three years since the Halos last posted a winning season and four since they last made the playoffs. Their farm system is only now recovering after sitting at the bottom of the league for years. Overall, the Angels have squandered every opportunity since Trout entered the league. No one would blame him if he looked for a new home.

Instead, the Halos and Trout agreed to a massive deal that somehow gives the hometown team a discount. Trout becomes the highest paid player in the game at $35.83 million annually, but even that number is low. Given the economics of the sport, his numbers easily justify $40 million or more per season.

Looking at this situation as a businessman, the Angels realistically had only two options to maximize value. One option was to move Trout this season for a large haul of prospects. The 2019 season provided the best opportunity to trade him with two years left on his contract. Teams would have been less willing to move high-level prospects next season. Most clubs would rather wait to negotiate with Trout with minimal loss in player capital, instead of getting him as a rental. Trading for him this season would have made more sense.

The other option was the one I never thought the club would accomplish: reaching an extension deal now. No one saw that coming, and for good reason. The Halos' front office has struggled for years. Anaheim no longer draws major free agents like it did following the 2002 World Series, and the aforementioned farm system went from being one of the league's best to worst in a matter of a couple seasons. Yet general manager Billy Eppler somehow worked with Trout on a deal. The investment is worth it for the Angels on several levels, even with the risk of another Pujols situation.

Why the investment is worth it

Any long-term deal becomes a risk-reward situation, especially when a new contracts extends a player deep into his 30s. The ill-fated Pujols deal keeps him with the Angels until age 42, which wouldn't have been a problem had he maintained a high level of productivity throughout most the contract. Instead, Pujols struggled with injuries from the get-go in Southern California.

If Trout hits the same wall, then the contract will be an abject failure. Nearly $36 million per season requires Trout to remain at or near the top of his game for much of the contract to be worth it. However, given Trout's injury history and production, he's worth the risk.

The dollar amount itself makes him worth the risk. He's already making close to that amount of money. Given how baseball economics and salaries work, there is a good chance that the league's top players will be making $40-45 million per season by the time Trout turns 35. If he remains ranked at or near the top of the league for the next six or so years, then Trout's new deal is a bargain.

Moreover, the Halos need a face to the franchise during a time when they are negotiating for either a new ballpark or a renovation of Angel Stadium. Having Trout on the roster makes it a lot easier to convince the local community that the Angels are serious about contending. There is still plenty to do on that front, but the Angels possess the centerpiece of their franchise. And they will possess that centerpiece for the next 12 years. Now it's up to them to rebuild into contenders with Trout and his favorable contract.