The Los Angeles Clippers entered this season as one of the three teams most likely to win the NBA championship, alongside the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers. The Clippers will still be one of the favorites to win it all once the season returns in Orlando, but the unique circumstances could even the playing field a bit on their quest for a title.
Looking at past matchups, current rosters, and the NBA standings, the second-seeded Clippers are most likely to face the Oklahoma City Thunder (40-24), Houston Rockets (40-24), or Dallas Mavericks (40-27) in the first round. As of right now, the Memphis Grizzlies are far too low to get any higher than the No. 8 seed, and the Utah Jazz (41-23) are unlikely to fall to No. 7. Seeds 2-6 are close enough for some serious jumbling in certain scenarios, but we'll focus on the more likely outcome.
For starters, the Clippers would love nothing more than to take on an inexperienced Mavs team led by second-year star Luka Doncic. The Mavs' core of Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Jalen Brunson (who isn't expected to be available, but hasn't been ruled out) hasn't played a single playoff game. The only two with experience are Tim Hardaway Jr., who has 17 games of playoff experience during his time with the Atlanta Hawks, and Seth Curry, who has 16 games of playoff experience during his time with last year's Portland Trail Blazers team. In addition to that, Powell has been lost for the season due to an unfortunate Achilles tear.
The Clippers defeated the Mavs in both meetings during the 2019-20 regular season. They're scheduled to face off a third time on Aug. 6.
The Clippers have all the weapons to throw at Doncic, whether it be Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, or Patrick Beverley.
In their two games against the Mavs, Doncic averaged 29.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game, but LA made everything difficult, holding him to just 40.0 percent shooting from the field and 15.0 percent from beyond the arc. The first of those games was a 4-of-14 shooting night back in November. Doncic likely won't play that poorly again, but the Clippers are fully capable of putting Doncic through hell in a series.
The biggest mismatch, and advantage, the Mavs have is Porzingis. Like Doncic, the 7-foot-3 Latvian struggled against the Clippers this season as well, averaging just 12.5 points and 9.5 rebounds on 26.7 percent shooting from the field and 25.0 percent from beyond the arc. However, Porzingis has been seemingly trying to find his fit alongside his new Mavs teammates all season long after a couple of rough years in New York and a torn ACL in February 2018, and he was starting to find a rhythm in February and into March before the season was suspended.
It's well-documented that the Clippers' biggest issue is their size at center, or rather, their NOT playing size often enough. That's why Porzingis could be an issue for the Clippers. His length and ability to have a stretch 5 is something not many teams possess.
Ivica Zubac is only at 18.1 minutes per game this season, while backup center Montrezl Harrell is at 27.8 minutes per game. For the season, both Zubac and Harrell have been great in their respective roles, but Zubac's playoff minutes will likely hover around 18-22. Offense is hard to come by in the postseason, and Harrell's offensive versatility is hard to stop, as he showed last postseason against the defending NBA champions.
Opponents shoot just 46.2 percent at the rim when defended by the 7-foot Zubac, which is one of the very best marks in the entire NBA, according to NBA.com's Second Spectrum tracking data. Harrell, a 6-foot-8 tweener big man, isn't too shabby himself but still isn't the rim protector Zubac is, and he's a far more versatile offensive threat.
The Clippers also now have Joakim Noah in reserve at center, but he hasn't played a game with the team yet and will likely be used only in emergency situations.
Doncic ultimately being the Mavs' only legitimate playmaker is what would probably come to bite the team in this series. Sure, guys like Porzingis, Brunson, Hardaway, and Curry can create a bit for themselves, but they can't do it on the level the Mavs need. When fatigue starts to set in, the Clippers would make things exceptionally tough on Doncic, and it's hard to envision who else would step up on a consistent basis. Porzingis could be that guy, but while he was seemingly finding his groove earlier this season, he's not an elite creator and is an unproven commodity in the postseason.
If the Clippers and Mavs meet in the playoffs, I'd expect LA to come out on top, 4-1.
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