The Oklahoma City Thunder have an opportunity to select a franchise-changing star in the 2022 NBA Draft. Their second overall pick gives them a chance to add a third star to their current Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey duo. So they need to make sure they get their 2022 pick right. The presumed top trio in the NBA Draft includes Auburn's Jabari Smith, Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren, and Duke's Paolo Banchero.
The general thinking is that the top three teams in the draft will be happy selecting any one of those three players.
However, one of them should be avoided. And the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are on the verge of being competitive, need to make sure they don't take this player.
So who is the player out of Smith, Holmgren, and Banchero that OKC needs to avoid?
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The player Thunder must avoid in 2022 NBA Draft
The reason the Thunder need to avoid this specific player boils down to two major things. First off, his play style won't be the best fit for OKC. Secondly, there is the looming threat of bust potential.
Paolo Banchero is the player in question. The Thunder need to avoid drafting the Duke product this year.
Is Banchero a bad player? Absolutely not. He features plenty of talent and potential. So why should OKC avoid him in the NBA Draft?
Play style
Banchero is a 6'10 big who is known as a scorer. However, he doesn't offer much in the way of defense. Banchero could profile as either a power forward or center. Regardless, he may struggle to defend NBA big men.
And the Thunder are a young team that need defensive help. Adding a big like Banchero could boost their overall offensive numbers, but it won't help them win in the long run.
He also isn't known as a great rebounder. Sure, his 250 pound frame will help him out-muscle players at times. But he posted under eight rebounds per game in college. Additionally, he had just a 13.2 total rebound percentage for Duke, per sports reference.
And then there are offensive questions as well.
Paolo Banchero averaged over 17 points at Duke last season. He was a quality scorer in college and will likely be a decent scorer in the NBA. But he relies on mid-range jumpers too often and his shot selection needs to improve overall. Banchero doesn't feature much in the way of three-point shooting either.
He would benefit from attacking the rim more often in the NBA. But the Thunder need to pay attention to potential future statistics instead of what he did in college in terms of shooting the basketball. He shot around 48 percent from the field. But that will be a difficult number to replicate if he doesn't change his offensive mindset.
Bust potential
I don't believe Banchero will be a complete bust in the NBA. But is he going to produce top-3 level production?
I don't know. But there are indications that he won't. A top 3 player selected in the NBA Draft should be a franchise-changing star. Banchero may not be that.
He projects to be an underwhelming rim protector and defender. His reliance on the mid-range jumper is fairly concerning. Wings such as Jimmy Butler have found success from consistent use of mid-range jump shots. But successful big men tend to use them sparingly. Additionally, many NBA big men in today's game combine a mixture of finishing moves and three-point shooting ability.
Paolo Banchero has decent post moves, but lacks a three-point shot.
With all of this being said, I hope I'm wrong about Banchero. He enjoyed a tremendous college career and does feature star potential. But in the end, the Thunder should avoid drafting him with the number 2 pick overall. Even if Banchero ends up not being a bust and find success in his NBA career, he still profiles as a better fit for a team such as the Houston Rockets.
The Thunder need to roll with either Chet Holmgren or Jabari Smith in the 2022 NBA Draft.
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