The playoff race is getting more and more interesting with teams jockeying for position as the season winds down and only two weeks remaining. Interestingly, there are six teams that are fighting for the number three seed in the Western Conference such as the Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah Jazz, Minnesota Timberwolves, and New Orleans Pelicans.
Then again, there are two more teams, the Denver Nuggets and L.A. Clippers, who are on the outside looking in but have a shot at the eighth seed and perhaps even higher.
The Middle of the Pack
The Thunder are right smack in the middle of the Western race as the number six seed. It’s no secret that OKC is not just aiming for a playoff spot. Oklahoma City is one of a handful of teams that have a legitimate shot at winning an NBA championship. They didn’t retool their roster in the offseason just to be part of the playoff picture. They want to win it all.
After all, you don’t acquire two All-Star players in Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to team with incumbent Most Valuable Player Russell Westbrook just to bow out of the second-round of the postseason.
Winning Strategy
If they truly want to hold aloft the Larry O’Brien trophy as the last team standing this season, the Thunder may need to strategize their playoff seeding in order to assure them of at least making it to the Conference Finals against the NBA’s best team this season, the Houston Rockets. An interesting proposal to OKC would be to consider losing some of their remaining regular season games to head into the playoffs as the number seven seed.
The Rockets and the Golden State Warriors are the top two teams in the conference and are the favorites to come out of the West and win the championship eventually. Houston has clinched the Western Conference’s top seed this early and the Warriors are likely secure as the second seed.
If the Thunder stay on as the fourth or fifth seed, they will face a Rockets team in the second round should both teams advance. That’s a more dangerous match-up than going up against a Warriors ballclub missing its most important player in the first round. If they win against the Warriors early, their second-round opponent won’t be as tough as facing the Rockets.
The Injured Warriors
The Warriors are in a precarious situation given their players’ health issues. Just recently, Patrick McCaw was added to the wounded among them after he fell awkwardly during Saturday’s game versus the Sacramento Kings. Stephen Curry will be out at least three weeks (from March 24) for a Grade 2 MCL sprain on his left knee. Kevin Durant just returned from an injury. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green have finally returned to the lineup after going down with their own injuries weeks ago.
With Curry out until at least the second-round of the playoffs (if the Warriors advance), the Thunder could take advantage of the opportunity to strike against their perennial tormentors while they are recovering from various injuries. To do that, however, Westbrook and company may need to do something uncomfortable, that is, to try and lose a few games so that they end up facing the Warriors in the first round.
The risky part of this proposition is that the Thunder could also lose in the first round if they’re not ready for the Bay Area squad so early in the postseason. But OKC may need to swing big if they want to win big. By going up against an ailing Warriors team that is not at full strength, they could dispatch of their hated rival and prepare themselves for an easier path to the conference finals.
Not that the Warriors aren’t still dangerous without Curry, but without the most prolific three-point marksman in league history, Golden State is as vulnerable as they can possibly be.
Westbrook Without Worries
With Curry out, Westbrook doesn’t have to be as concerned with his counterpart on the defensive end as he should be. Though Quinn Cook, the likely starter in place of Curry in the playoffs, is playing admirably well in the absence of the two-time MVP, he’s not the shooter that Steph is. The second-year point guard is nowhere near the threat that Curry poses if he was healthy.
That means, Westbrook is free to wreak havoc both on offense and on defense. As one of the most explosive players in the league, Westbrook can roam on defense and help double-team Durant. With Westbrook and George taking on the Slim Reaper, the former OKC star will be forced to pass off and be a creator rather than a scorer. While Durant has developed into a better playmaker than in years past, the Thunder have a better chance of winning with him as a passer than a scorer. And that forces the other Warriors players to step up their game.
Curry’s Value
The Warriors can win without Curry, that’s for sure. But without him, their offense isn’t as fluid as it normally is. They become predictable with Durant going one-on-one with his opponent and when he passes out of a double-team, the only dangerous open three-point shooter is Thompson. That’s one less shooter for the Thunder to worry about even if Draymond Green occasionally makes his threes.
Gone is the player who teams fear can take and make a shot from virtually anywhere on the court. When he’s out, the Warriors miss Curry’s ball-handling and penetration just as much as his three-point shooting. But more important than these, it cannot be overstated how much of Golden State’s spacing is predicated on Curry’s mere presence on the floor.
None other than Warriors coach Steve Kerr articulated Curry’s value to the team when he was a guest at the Lowe Post podcast after last year’s NBA Finals, one which ESPN’s Zach Lowe mentioned in one of his takes on the value difference between Durant and Curry.
“People took it the wrong way when we had our conversation after the Finals,” Kerr said in the podcast. “I was talking specifically about two-way players, and Kevin is right there with LeBron and Kawhi [Leonard]. But does that mean he's better than Steph? All that stuff is subjective. Who's better: James Harden or Kawhi? I don't know. But if you're talking about who has the biggest impact on the way people guard us — on the identity of our team — then it's Steph. He's the engine. Everything starts with Steph.”
Lowe practically summarized what the Warriors are like minus Curry compared to what they can be without Durant.
“We've already seen what the Warriors look like with a solid starting small forward in Durant's place. They won the championship, and then 73 more games. When Durant missed 20 games last season with a knee injury, the Warriors slipped right back into their pre-KD identity — and ripped off a 14-game win streak.
Here's the weird truth: even in this halcyon era, the Warriors never quite figured out offense with Curry on the bench. They've scored at around a league-average rate, or worse, with Curry resting in each of the past four seasons, per NBA.com. They have never really locked on a non-Curry identity. They move around without purpose, in cluttered space. Green shoots and distributes more, and can get a little wild. Thompson shoots more, and a little less accurately.”
It's not a knock on Durant that the Warriors aren’t as good without their superstar point guard, it just underscores the fact that the team he joined was built around Curry and his unique talents.
Regular Season Match-Up
In their four regular season games, the Thunder took two of those games with Westbrook leading the way. Though success in the regular season against a particular team isn’t a barometer for a playoff match-up between the two teams, the wins are valuable in confidence-building for a Thunder team that needs the morale boost.
Despite some impressive win streaks this season, the Thunder are quite inconsistent. After rattling off six straight wins, OKC has gone on to lose four of its last five games.
Winning handily against the Warriors (108-91 and 125-105) shows that the Thunder have the firepower and perhaps even the template to overcome the league’s biggest bullies the past three years.
Daniel Hardee of SB Nation’s Golden State of Mind explained the dilemma that the Warriors confronted in the second blowout game that the Thunder won against the Warriors. Not only did OKC show off its offensive ability, they showcased the kind of defense that can trump the Golden State attack.
“…the Warriors struggled to find creases between the long, active limbs of the Thunder defenders. Remember: Oklahoma City nearly toppled the Warriors two years ago in the playoffs behind that type of smothering defense. The Thunder ran shooters off of the line, and recovered to cut off drives with a Terminator-like efficiency. Example: the Dubs didn’t even get to ATTEMPT a three point shot for the first eight minutes of the second quarter. The Warriors finished 8-for-28 from the arc, a paltry 28%.
George slithered around picks, kept an eye on shooters sneaking around the perimeter, and used the length of his 6’9 frame to fluster the Warriors. He finished the game with six of the Thunder’s fourteen steals; it seemed like he had a radar for the perfect timing to jump into the passing lanes. Also the Warriors threw some truly horrible passes his way.
In two meetings against the Thunder this season, the ‘Splash Bros’ Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have combined for 10-for-26 on three point shots. Clearly, Thunder coach Billy Donovan has emphasized the importance of forcing the Warriors into two point attempts. It’s worked so far.”
Westbrook was as spectacular as he can possibly be, averaging 34.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 9.0 assists and 2.0 steals per game in the two wins. As valuable as Curry is to the Warriors, Westbrook is just as vital to the Thunder’s success. He is more than capable of carrying the Thunder to victory in any given series. Adding more fuel to his fire, he has an opportunity to show up Durant in the playoffs on even terms with a cast that may be better than their OKC team two seasons ago.
George has been every bit the superstar that Westbrook has craved for after Durant’s departure. His skills are as close to an approximation of Durant’s abilities as there can be found around the league. He’s an excellent shooter and a terrific defender, one who can be counted on to guard some of the best players the league has to offer. In their second meeting with the Warriors, George exploded for 38 points shooting 6-of-11 from beyond the arc, a testament to the kind of player that the Thunder need to overtake the West’s best teams.
On the other hand, Anthony has been the most inconsistent of the three superstars, capable of shooting the lights out on offense on some nights while completely disappearing during others. Anthony averaged a meager 12.0 points per game in the team’s meetings and that isn’t enough.
He is the X-factor in a possible postseason pairing between these two teams. When he is on his game, there are few players who are as tough to guard as Anthony. If the Thunder hope to beat the Warriors, they need Melo to step up.
Conclusion
The storyline surrounding a potential Westbrook vs. Durant playoff series is likely to take over the headlines in the playoffs. Despite the two players having buried the hatchet during the All-Star break, Westbrook is looking for redemption after being left behind by Thunder without notice less than two years ago.
The Warriors with Durant are still world-beaters and may yet win another championship even without Curry, but a determined Thunder team with Westbrook, George and Anthony who are all hungry for postseason success can spoil their championship hopes.
Though it is unlikely that OKC will tank their remaining games, if they face the Warriors (as fate would allow them to) in the first round, they could win that series and dethrone the defending NBA champions early in the playoffs.
Facing the Warriors early and winning would also be a good training ground for the Thunder in preparation for the road ahead, with the Rockets likely waiting in the Western Conference Finals.
Once there, anything can happen. And that could mean a date with destiny for Oklahoma City in the NBA Finals.
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