Like last year's Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson, it's impossible to predict which wide receivers will break out to join the ranks of the elite. But, taking looks into previous seasons' underlying metrics, tracking personnel and coaching changes, and much more can help us to spot those breakouts ready to happen.
Without further ado, let's rank the top 15 fantasy football wide receivers for 2021! (PPR scoring)
1. Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers is back for what could very well be his last season with Adams and Green Bay, and the two will be out for blood. Davante has paced for over 1,300 yards in each of the last three seasons, and paced for 13 TDs over the last five seasons combined. Without any new threats for targets in Green Bay, lock him in as fantasy's WR1.
2. Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills
Diggs hit the ground running as he arrived in Buffalo last season, as he paced the NFL in both catches and yards. Now, with a full offseason to refine his game with Josh Allen, there's no reason to believe Diggs can't repeat, or even improve upon, his performance. He doesn't have the immense upside of a Hill or Adams, but he is a bonafide set-and-forget receiver for WR1 numbers.
3. Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs
Hill has easily the highest weekly ceiling in the NFL for any wide receiver, as he took the final step in completing his game by becoming a redzone threat and hauling in 15 touchdowns in 2020. Though the Chiefs' bevy of weapons hurts Hill's target share somewhat, he should be due for more shot plays downfield with Kansas City's revamped offensive line.
4. Deandre Hopkins – Arizona Cardinals
Hopkins had an interesting season in 2020, as he got off to a torrid start before becoming a bit sporradic with his numbers in the second half of the season. He still surpassed 1,400 yards, however, even in a year where his production seemed relatively unexciting. He is due for positive TD regression as well, and thus possesses the upside to be this year's WR1.
5. Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings
Jefferson didn't even start until Week 3 of last season, but he still broke the rookie receiving yards record en route to a top-6 finish among wide receivers. Though the Vikings defense shouldn't be quite as poor this year, meaning less shootout for Kirk Cousins, Jefferson's immediate role as a staple in the offense, progression into Year 2, and growth in the red zone should buoy his production into mid-tier WR1 territory once agin.
6. D.K. Metcalf – Seattle Seahawks
Through Metcalf's first two seasons, he's grown from a freak of nature into a truly refined, complete receiver. Though his numbers jumped in every category in Year 2, perhaps most impressive was the leap from a 58.0% catch rate to 64.3%. With improved hands and great chemistry with Russell Wilson, Metcalf should be able to truly take over as Seattle's No. 1 receiver. Tyler Lockett isn't getting any younger, and all signs are pointing towards an explosion from D.K. in 2021.
7. Calvin Ridley – Atlanta Falcons
With the departure of Julio Jones, Ridley will find himself with more targets, but also more attention from opposing secondaries. However, that hasn't hurt him in the past, as he's averaged 7.3 receptions on 11.1 targets, and 107 yards in his career in games where Jones didn't play. That bodes well for 2021, as Ridley will aim to build upon last year's 1,374 yard, 9 TD breakout.
8. Terry McLaurin – Washington Football Team
Scary Terry has had two great seasons to start his career, but the stars seem to be aligned for his Year 3 campaign. Ryan Fitzpatrick is by far the most aggressive and efficient quarterback that McLaurin has played with, and the WFT offense as a whole appears ready to break out this year with all their young talent. Take McLaurin as a lower-end WR1 with the upside to vault into the top-tier.
9. Allen Robinson – Chicago Bears
Robinson has been the victim of inconsistent quarterback personnel and performance repeatedly throughout his career, but he might actually find himself in a decent situation this year. With competition between Andy Dalton and dynamic rookie Justin Fields, A-Rob will almost certainly have an upgrade at QB, which, combined with his incredible talent, could vault him back into the upper stratosphere of wide receivers.
10. CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys
Lamb barely finished behind Amari Cooper as Dallas' No. 1 scoring wide receiver in fantasy, and he appears ready to take the mantle in his sophomore campaign. With Dak Prescott back from injury, Lamb could explode for Justin Jefferson-like numbers, as he nearly reached 1,000 yards with Andy Dalton and Ben DiNucci at QB last season.
11. A.J. Brown – Tennessee Titans
Brown would certainly rank higher if not for the arrival of Julio Jones, but he should still be elite nonetheless. As one of the most physically gifted wideouts in the NFL, the only thing that's limited Brown's upside is simply that Derrick Henry demands a heavy dose of carries. In Year 3, expect a similar output to 2020, with perhaps a higher weekly ceiling and lower floor due to Jones.
12. Keenan Allen – Los Angeles Chargers
Allen, one of the premier route runners in the league, should make great things happen in his second season with QB Justin Herbert. His ability to create separation makes him a beast in PPR, and the great thing about Allen is that you know you'll get consistent performances with the ability to flash for big games every once in a while. If you're looking for a safe WR1, take Allen.
13. Robert Woods – Los Angeles Rams
With Matthew Stafford's arrival from the Detroit Lions, both Woods and Cooper Kupp will be the beneficiaries of a true gunslinger. I'm betting on Woods to make an elite jump, as he's the more athletically gifted receiver who will benefit more from shots downfield than Kupp, whose numbers in PPR were often predicated on quick throws from Jared Goff. Woods will have the potential for WR1 numbers with Stafford in town, as big plays are due.
14. Brandon Aiyuk – San Francisco 49ers
Aiyuk might seem like an odd pick, but the sophomore WR was drafted at No. 25 last year for a reason. He paced for more yards than CeeDee Lamb over a full 16 game season, and his raw athletic ability simply screams upside. Though the 49ers QB situation is murky, if Trey Lance takes over and performs well, Aiyuk could explode into mid-tier WR1 territory. He's got a higher ceiling than anyone in this tier.
15. Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Godwin had what felt like a down year, but he still finished with 840 yards over 12 games – a 1,120-yard pace. At this point in all of their careers, he is the most talented receiver on the Buccaneers, and should lead the team in both targets and receptions. Though he doesn't command the goal line targets that Mike Evans does, Godwin should be the most consistent producer in Tampa with the highest floor and a pretty high ceiling as well.
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