- CLUTCH SUMMARY: The Boston Red Sox are reportedly willing to listen to trade offers for star Mookie Betts.
- Betts has regressed a bit after his MVP season, but he's still one of the best players in baseball.
- Trading Betts would be a big mistake, and the Red Sox should get creative in order to keep him.
The Boston Red Sox have not had nearly as much fun in 2019. After winning 108 games last year and rampaging through the playoffs en route to a World Series title, the Red Sox have had to grind their way through this entire season just to stay in the playoff hunt.
In spite of an offense that ranked second in baseball in runs scored entering play on Sunday, Boston's starting rotation has completely collapsed, and the lack of a true closer in the bullpen has not helped matters.
Although they are still a winning club, the Red Sox are in a bit of a sticky situation. They nearly surpassed the highest luxury tax threshold this season, and just offered massive extensions to the likes of Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts. Additionally, Boston has one of the worst farm systems in the league, and there is not a whole lot of young pitching talent that might be able to help a staff that is already ailing.
Then, there is the issue of J.D. Martinez. The Red Sox were the surprise winners of the Martinez sweepstakes last winter, and he rewarded them with an MVP-caliber season that nearly won him the Triple Crown in the American League. However, Martinez can opt out of his current contract this offseason, which would make him an unrestricted free agent.
This combination of issues has led to the Red Sox reportedly tinkering with the notion of trading last year's AL MVP, Mookie Betts.
While Betts has not had the same kind of superlative season he had last year, he has still put up good numbers while ranking 10th in the MLB in terms of fWAR. Simultaneously, he turned down an eight-year, $200 million extension in 2017, and he will become a free agent after the 2020 season. Thus, the Red Sox would be more intent on capitalizing on his trade value rather than risk losing him in free agency.
Yet, irrespective of all the factors that could make trading Betts an intriguing option for the Red Sox, it would be a colossal mistake.
Generational player
Baseball fans frequently talk about Mike Trout as a generational player. He hits for average, power, runs like the wind and plays some of the best center field in all of baseball. Betts has those very same attributes.
According to fWAR, Trout has easily been the most valuable player in baseball since 2015 (when Betts played his first full season with Boston). However, Betts ranks second, and he has racked up nearly six more wins than Kris Bryant, who ranks third.
In the last five seasons, Betts is hitting .300 and slugging .519, with a 134 wRC+ while stealing more bases and scoring more runs than Trout. For as diminutive as he is, he hits just about everything in sight, and he has power to all fields.
As easily the best defensive right fielder in baseball, Betts has won three consecutive Gold Gloves. Since 2015, Tampa Bay Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier is the only outfield player who has racked up more Defensive Runs Saved than Betts, and Betts actually has a higher Ultimate Zone Rating during that time frame.
In an era where stolen bases have become a thing of the past, Betts has the eighth-most stolen bases in the league since 2015, and he has stolen at least 21 bases in each of the last four years (that run may end in 2019, as Betts currently has 12).
He is also a tremendously smart baserunner, leading the bigs in runs scored since 2015 and posting the second-best BsR (FanGraph's base running evaluation) in the last five years.
How many guys can impact a baseball game in as many ways as Betts can for the Red Sox? None, save for Trout.
Be creative, Dombrowski
If it isn't clear by now, Betts can do anything and everything on a baseball field. Players like that are incredibly rare, and you almost never see them traded. Likewise, consider what the Angels did this winter.
Rather than heeding all of the talk that they might trade Trout, Los Angeles rewarded him with the richest contract in baseball history. Trout is currently on pace for arguably his best season as a professional.
Of course, things are slightly different for the Red Sox. They do not have the same kind of payroll flexibility the Angels had when they offered Trout such a gigantic deal, and Betts would command nearly as much money both in guaranteed and annual value.
Still, do the Red Sox have a better chance to win with or without Betts on the field? The answer should be pretty clear. Maybe guys like Ian Anderson, Drew Waters, Kyle Tucker or other potential top prospects Betts might command could become stars … maybe.
Betts is not only already a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate, but he is only just turning 27 years old this October. By most standards, that age is just the beginning of a baseball player's prime. Imagine all of the things Betts could still do in a Boston uniform.
Sure, locking Betts up would take plenty of creativity. The Red Sox might have to let Martinez walk this offseason, or see if they could find some value for someone like Nathan Eovaldi. Still, Boston does have a number of players coming off the books this winter, and there will at least be a tiny bit of wiggle room to work with next season and beyond.
President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski (also known as “Dealin' Dave”) needs to get creative. Maybe, instead of trading Betts, the Red Sox could be aggressive in trying to get a high-end package for someone like Rafael Devers, who is having a breakout season but is also far less of a well-rounded superstar as Betts.
Or perhaps the Red Sox entertain offers for guys like Andrew Benintendi, who still has plenty of potential but has not really seen a ton of improvement from his rookie numbers.
Whatever the case may be, Boston has to create payroll space to extend Betts. Red Sox fans do not want to be looking at a what-if scenario a few years down the road.
Betts has been as close to a sure thing as anyone in baseball for the last five years, and he is not even in the prime of his career. Trading him would be a huge mistake.
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