UFC Brazil: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis kicks off the prelims with a fight in the lightweight division between promotional newcomer Kaue Fernandes and Marc Diakiese. Fernandes is a nine-fight professional who has won his last two fights coming into his UFC debut meanwhile.
Diakiese has now dropped back-to-back fights and is searching for his first win in 16 months this weekend in Sao Paulo, Brazil. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Fernandes-Diakiese prediction and pick.
Kaue Fernandes (8-1) is a highly skilled prospect who fights out of Brazil’s Nova Uniao, which has produced a plethora of UFC talent like the UFC legend Jose Aldo. He is a dangerous striker who was able to finish his last two opponents in less than three minutes combined. Fernandes hopes that his momentum will carry him in his hometown debut against Marc Diakiese this weekend.
Marc Diakiese (16-7) has now won only two out of his last six fights and is currently on a two-fight losing skid. While he may be in a rut now, he has only lost to elite talent during his time in the UFC. Diakiese also possesses the skills needed to show this newcomer that there are levels to this, and that is what he will attempt to do this weekend at UFC Brazil.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Brazil Odds: Kaue Fernandes-Marc Diakiese Odds
Kaue Fernandes: +160
Marc Diakiese: -192
Over 2.5 Rounds: +135
Under 2.5 Rounds: -175
How to Watch Kaue Fernandes vs. Marc Diakiese
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET/ 3:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)
Why Kaue Fernandes Will Win
Kaue Fernandes is a Brazilian lightweight prospect who has won eight of his nine professional bouts with six of them coming inside the distance. He has spent the majority of his time fighting for Legacy Fighting Alliance and Shoot Brasil, which are two of the top regional promotions.
Fernandes has won his last two fights both by first-round knockout. One of those fights didn’t even go one minute, and the other finished in under two minutes.
He is a rangy striker who likes to utilize kicks to keep his opponents at bay. That is going to be his key to success against a fighter like Marc Diakiese, who likes to pressure forward.
Diakiese has fallen in love with his wrestling in recent fights but can be picked apart on the feet as we’ve seen in his most recent two losses. If Fernandes can keep this fight standing, he should have no problem taking it to Diakiese and getting his first UFC victory.
Why Marc Diakiese Will Win
Marc Diakiese burst onto the scene with three consecutive victories, two of those coming by knockout, but has gone 4-7 since then. He was most recently dominated in each of his last two fights as he was finished by Joel Alvarez by a second-round D’Arce Choke and then lost a lopsided decision to the aging Michael Johnson. Now, he gets to take on a Brazilian prospect who will be looking to make his name off of him.
When Diakiese is at his best, he is an absolute problem to deal with. That is when he is the one pressuring forward, landing heavy calf kicks, and utilizing his grappling to his advantage. As long as Diakiese doesn’t give Fernandes the space to operate and come in with a grapple-heavy gameplan, he has the chance to right the ship and finally get back on track.
Final Kaue Fernandes-Marc Diakiese Prediction & Pick
This is a great lightweight scrap to kick off this UFC Brazil fight card. Kaue Fernandes is looking to show out in his UFC debut in front of his home crowd. Meanwhile, Diakiese is there to spoil the coming-out party and show that he is levels above a newcomer.
Fernandes does an exceptional job at countering his opponents when they get range as well as hammering the lead calf and body with kicks of his opponent. Diakiese on the other hand is going to push forward, look to land heavy strikes, and take Fernandes down and dominate him there. This fight boils down to whether or not Fernandes can keep this fight upright or get back to his feet if he gets taken down.
Ultimately, Diakiese will look to push the pace early and take the fight to the mat, as he will be eager to get the finish. But Fernandes will make him work and keep this fight standing, eventually getting the knockout and his first win inside the octagon.
Final Kaue Fernandes-Marc Diakiese Prediction & Pick: Kaue Fernandes (+160), Under 2.5 Rounds (-175)
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