Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night will be headlined by a showdown between women bantamweights in Ketlen Vieira and Miesha Tate. Vieira has never fought in a title fight, and she plans to use this matchup against a legendary fighter as a stepping stone towards her dreams of earning a shot at a belt. Of course, Tate has zero plans of making things easy for Vieira. Tate also has his eyes on reclaiming the bantamweight belt, but a loss to Vieira could severely hurt her chances of becoming a UFC champion again. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our UFC Fight Night odds series, which includes our Ketlen Vieira-Miesha Tate prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here’s the Ketlen Vieira-Miesha Tate odds:
UFC Fight Night odds: Ketlen Vieira-Miesha Tate Odds
Ketlen Vieira: -108
Miesha Tate: -108
Over: 4.5 rounds (-168)
Under: 4.5 rounds (+132)
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Why Ketlen Vieira will win the fight
The odds for this fight opened with Vieira as the favorite, but that’s no longer the case — at least in some sportsbooks. That being said, it’s not hard to see why the Brazilian used to be seen as the chalk in this matchup. For one, she’s the more active fighter between her and Tate. Vieira has fought every year at least once since 2014. She is also five years the junior of Tate.
And although Vieira is coming off a loss (3-round unanimous decision) to Yana Kunitskaya back in February 2021 that took out the momentum she got from a prior win over Sijara Eubanks in September 2020, she’s not losing the physical advantages she has over Tate. Vieira owns a two-inch and three-inch height and reach advantages opposite Tate, respectively.
That reach advantage will play a crucial part in her advantage against Tate, as she can use it to keep Tate at bay while trying to deal damage from a safer distance. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belter, Vieira will very much likely try to win on the ground. She has a 48 percent takedown accuracy and a 4-0 submission record, so far in her pro career. It’s not surprising to know that Vieira hasn’t been submitted ever when you consider the fact that in the UFC, she has a high takedown defense rate of 92 percent.
Why Miesha Tate will win the fight
After being away from the sport for almost five years, Tate returned to action in July 2021 and demolished Marion Reneau in a technical knockout win. Not to take anything away from Tate’s victory, but Reneau was 44 years old at the time of that bout and was on a four-fight losing streak heading into it.
In other words, the UFC gave Tate a highly beatable opponent to check whether she’s still got it. And it turns out, there’s plenty left in Tate’s tank. Even if Reneau looked like a sitting duck in that fight, the manner with which Tate dominated her opponent must have definitely sent a strong message across the division. Tate landed 65 strikes to only 25 by Reneau. She also took Reneau down three times while avoiding getting brought to the mat.
Tate's comeback showing was so good, the UFC gave her Performance of the Night honors. Given that Vieira owns a significant reach advantage over her, Tate might not look to engage Vieira standing up, except when the opportunity presents itself. Tate has four T/KO wins in her career, though outside of that Reneau fight, she’s never scored that kind of victory in the UFC. Instead, look for her to expose Vieira on the ground. Tate is one of the premier women grapplers all-time in the UFC. She is tied for sixth all-time among women bantamweights with 13 takedowns landed and third with 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes.
Final Ketlen Vieira-Miesha Tate Prediction & Pick
Let’s just say that Vieira and Tate will cancel each other’s grappling. That would mean that the winner of this bout is going to be decided by which fighter will have the more impressive striking. Tate is a legend, but Vieira has the tools, skills, and youth to cause problems for Cupcake. I see Tate being the more aggressive fighter early on, but once Vieira starts to land strikes, she will have success backing up Tate and become more confident as the fight progresses. I don't also see this fight ending in a knockout, but Vieira will end up winning most of the rounds for a unanimous decision victory.
Final Ketlen Vieira-Miesha Tate Pick: Ketlen Vieira (-108)
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