We're back for another UFC 309 betting prediction and pick as the Main Card action gets underway from Madison Square Garden. This next bout features ranked contenders in the Women's Flyweight (125) Division as No. 9 Viviane Araujo takes on No. 11 Karine Silva. Check out our UFC odds series for our Araujo-Silva prediction and pick.
Viviane Araujo (12-6) has gone 6-5 during her time with the UFC since 2019. After an impressive run to start her career, she's gone 3-1 over her last four fights with a unanimous decision loss to Natalia Silva most recently. She'll look to get back on track as she continues chasing a title shot. Araujo stands 5'4″ with a 68-inch reach.
Karine Silva (18-4) has gone a perfect 4-0 in the UFC since 2022. She now owns three victories by way of submission to go along with her most recent unanimous decision over Ariane Lipski da Silva. This will be the toughest test of her career as she looks to inch one step closer to her first title challenge. Silva stands 5'5″ with a 67-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 309 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 309 Odds: Viviane Araujo-Karine Silva Odds
Viviane Araujo: +215
Karine Silva: -265
Over 2.5 rounds: -280
Under 2.5 rounds: +210
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Why Viviane Araujo Will Win
Viviane Araujo has been near the top of the Flyweight Division since her blistering 5-2 start with the UFC. She's had trouble, however, facing off against some of the top up-and-coming talent like Alexa Grasso, Amanda Ribas, and Natalia Silva. She'll be tasked with another young fighter from the new generation, but she remains as one of the most consistent presences within this weight class. Expect her experience to carry her as the betting underdog during this one.
Viviane Araujo is extremely skilled in all areas of MMA and she owns finishes by both knockout and submission. She's very calm, yet constant in her striking output and does a great job of dictating the pace of the fight. Her takedown defense is very impressive at 78% and it's worth noting she's never been submitted at the pro level. Her best chance to win this fight will be to drag Silva into deep waters and gas her out with striking combinations late in the fight.
Why Karine Silva Will Win
Karine Silva has looked stellar through her first four UFC fights and after ending the first three by submission in the first round, we finally saw her in a three-round decision during her last fight. She was extremely poised and fights with an aura of maturity, taking her time through the exchanges and getting the fight to where she's most comfortable. She's also very physically imposing and uses her strength to out-muscle opponents into submission attempts.
While her striking may not be on the same level as her jiu jitsu, Karine Silva still packs a big punch and throws her shots with bad intentions. Her accuracy could use some work at 35% landed, but she does a solid job of defending herself and doesn't typically absorb too much damage. She's only been knocked out once in her career and doesn't seem likely to face the same fate in this one.
Final Viviane Araujo-Karine Silva Prediction & Pick
This is an extremely high-level bout between a tested UFC veteran and a hungry contender on the rise. Both women are clinicians when it comes to the grappling and while Araujo could hold the slight speed advantage, Silva is physically stronger and can finish opponents with her aggression alone.
Viviane Araujo will be a live dog throughout this fight simply due to her cardio and ability to not waver her striking output. She'll keep coming forward with her offense and it'll be up to Silva to decide where to take this fight.
Ultimately, I don't love what I've seen out of Araujo over the last few fights and she's on a bit of a downswing at this point of her career. While she may not be showing too many signs of slowing down, this seems like an advantageous matchup for the grappling of Karine Silva. Silva also has more knockout upside and has displayed a solid chin, so you have to like her chances given the decent price for an undefeated prospect. Let's roll with Silva to advance to 5-0 on Saturday night.
Final Viviane Araujo-Karine Silva Prediction & Pick: Karine Silva (-265)
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