The writing had been on the wall for quite some time, so the release of tight end Kyle Rudolph by the Minnesota Vikings was not seen as a surprise by many. After spending the first 10 seasons of his career with the team that drafted him, Rudolph was released heading into the third season of his four-year contract extension that he signed back in 2019.
With Rudolph out of the fold, the Vikings will elevate Irv Smith Jr. to their top TE option heading into next season. Heading into his third season in the league, Smith will hold an important role in the Vikings' offense, especially with how much their run-first attack includes its tight ends, both through play-action and screen utilization.
However, even though Smith is the direct replacement to fill Rudolph’s void, this offense should have a different look to it altogether. Here is a look at which players will be affected the most and how these changes will impact their fantasy football outlook for ‘21.
Irv Smith Jr.
As previously stated, Smith will become the team’s TE1, provided there are no high-profile outside additions made or injuries suffered. The former Alabama product has looked solid, yet unspectacular, in his first two seasons, holding down the backup role behind Kyle Rudolph while learning the intricacies of his position at the NFL level.
Having suited up in three fewer games this season than during his rookie campaign, Smith put up the best statistical year of his career to date, hauling in 30 passes for 365 yards and five touchdowns. While his catch percentage dipped by almost seven percent, he saw 40+ targets for the second consecutive season, and those numbers should only increase now. The real question is where Smith lines up in the offense. This is going to be something to follow this upcoming season, as it has big ramifications on the entire offense.
Last year, Smith lined up the fourth-most snaps in the slot (108 snaps), behind Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, and Chad Beebe, and that trend will only increase. Smith also ran 290 routes, showcasing that of his 545 offensive snaps, he was utilized as an option in the passing game.
While he may take a bit to develop, Smith’s fantasy role is going to become one built on highs and lows. For instance, Kyle Rudolph’s fantasy value was non-existent last year unless you needed a bye-week filler. Despite, Smith’s role becoming larger and more involved than Rudolph’s, setting Smith within the top 10-12 TE’s heading into this season is a fair thing to do – just be prepared to wait for results to back that projection up.
Adam Thielen
The player that could easily lose the most snaps because of Smith’s promotion is Thielen, and that would come via him lining up in the slot. His 472 snaps in the slot this past season is obviously building upon a strength of his and one that Cousins utilizes heavily, so that won’t go away fully.
But an expectation of declining 30-50 snaps in the slot can be expected, especially once Smith proves that he can handle his larger role. Thielen’s role has obviously shifted to being the team’s WR2 behind Jefferson, and his athleticism is not on the same page as the latter.
Thielen’s 14 scores finished only behind Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, all despite missing one game, his 926 snaps and 108 targets cemented his role in this offense.
The emergence of Jefferson, combined with Smith’s ascension into the starting role, is going to impact Thielen’s snap count, but it could actually be a blessing for him. Injuries have begun to play a small role in Thielen’s career as of late, and maybe losing some snaps every game could help keep him on the field.
A sure-handed option that is a great option in point-per-reception formats, Thielen’s role will be quite solid next year, especially with teams focusing their defensive backfields on Jefferson more. Replicating a 14-TD season may not be in the cards, but a super-efficient campaign, maybe even setting a career-best in catches, could be the upside.
Justin Jefferson
The prized LSU rookie capped off his first season in the league by putting up 88 receptions, 1,400 yards, and seven scores while playing in all 16 games. Having cemented himself as the WR1 and top option on this offense, he and Cousins will need to remain on the same page heading into year 2, something that will be impacted by Kyle Rudolph’s release.
A safety valve like Rudolph drags coverage down into the box, helping Jefferson face fewer guys over the top. While Jefferson was eclipsed by Thielen in overall snap count, he did earn more snaps on the outside, as well as in the slot than Thielen.
Looking into formational breakdowns may not paint the clearest picture of ‘21 expectations for Jefferson, but his fantasy projections look as rosy as ever. Similar to Thielen, his slot snaps should be expected to decline a bit with Smith’s role at tight end. Something that could push Jefferson out to the boundary more or force the team to run more two-slot formations to maximize their WR talents in the slot.
For other options like Dalvin Cook and Beebe, they will see some of their receiving work take a dip, with Beebe the biggest loser.
Cook will still get his fair share of dump-offs and screen work, but he may not be split out wide as often, due to Smith taking over some of those roles. Cook could be asked to pick up more pass-blocking responsibilities this year, but his fantasy outlook should not take any sort of a noticeable dip with this personnel change.
Of Beebe’s 314 snaps, 230 of those came in the slot, and reasonably thinking that that number will drop below 190 is very much in the ballpark of outcomes for this next season. Beebe is not being counted on as a reliable fantasy option at this current point and that should not change, outside of an injury or a change in offensive focus.
The Vikings look to be set in terms of offensive weapons, and this piece did not even discuss Cook in length – but the departure of Rudolph will help open up targets for Smith, Thielen, and Jefferson, even if it comes at the expense of slot snaps for both starting receivers.
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