In March 2021, third-party grading company PSA had become so inundated with card submissions that it was forced to halt most of its operations. Since then, it has slowly but surely opened other services, but its cheapest tier, the bulk tier, had remained closed.
Until now.
Earlier this week, PSA re-opened its bulk tier at $22 per card, which comes on the heels of the $18 special the company ran for the month of July.
When PSA closed its doors last March, bulk grading was at $20 a card, a massive increase from the $10 cost it had been previously. Obviously, PSA increased its price to stem the tide of submissions, but even at $20, it was still getting flooded, so it had no choice but to cease accepting most card submissions (aside from the very expensive express tiers).
The Pokemon card market has since settled. Is it back to its pre-pandemic days? No, and it probably never will be, but the tidal wave that occurred during the late 2020 boom has unquestionably receded.
As a result, PSA clearly feels comfortable dropping its cost down to $22. Still expensive? Yes, but it's a pretty significant step forward considering the cheapest tier was previously $30.
Here is the catch, though: the value cap is $199 per card. This means that any card that has a value of over $199 once it receives a particular grade will be upcharged. For example, let's say you submit a Base Set Charizard at $22 and it gets a PSA 9. This card typically sells for in the neighborhood of $1,000 on eBay. You don't need to be a mathematician to see that that is well over $199. In turn, PSA would upcharge you to the tier with a $1,000 value cap. Right now, the $50 economy tier has a value cap of $999, so you would probably be upcharged from $22 to $50.
PSA hasn't always been incredibly strict with upcharges, so there is absolutely a chance it would let some cards slide, but you kind of get the feeling that it really wants to prevent another backlog. For that reason, PSA might be more stringent with its upcharges this time around.
So, how will all of this affect the Pokemon card market?
Honestly, probably not much.
Let's keep in mind that PSA just finished running that aforementioned $18 special a month-and-a-half ago, so it's hard to imagine people submitting any cards at $22 that they didn't submit at $18 (which also had the same $199 value cap). Of course, some collectors may have accumulated more cards over the last 45 days, so PSA will surely get some volume of submissions, but it doesn't seem like it will get overwhelmed like it did in late 2020 and early 2021.
In addition, sale prices have decreased from their pandemic highs, to the point where many cards that you could grade for $20 and then easily flip for $100 two years ago are now barely profitable (if they are profitable at all).
Realistically speaking, there aren't a whole lot of cards that fit the criteria for a $22 grading cost with a $199 value cap. I myself only sent 36 cards to PSA during the $18 special. Yes, there were others who sent many more than that, but those people were more willing to run the risk of significant upcharges. I preferred to wait.
And that would be my advice to anyone who is debating whether or not they are going to bundle up some submissions to send into PSA at the current $22 cost: wait.
Again, PSA has gradually been returning to normalcy. Prior to the pandemic, bulk submissions would generally be completed and returned within three or four months. During the boom, that interlude skyrocketed to over a year for many (I waited as long as almost 19 months to get one of my 2020 submissions back). But now? PSA is back to advertising 120-day turnaround times, which comes to four months.
Evidently, PSA is almost done with its backlog. It wouldn't feel confident in stating 120-day turnaround times if that weren't the case, and it almost certainly wouldn't be opening up cheaper grading tiers.
Over the last three or four months, PSA has been moving rather quickly. It opened a $50 tier in May, and one month later, it brought a $30 option into the fold. Now, here we are in September, and PSA has already unleashed the $22 bulk tier.
My guess is that between now and the end of the year, PSA will either drop the price of bulk or conduct another special. I wouldn't be surprised if we see either $15 bulk or a $15 limited-time special sometime over the next couple of months. PSA CEO Nat Turner has already stated that the company is aiming to get back down to $10 per card at some point. When that actually happens is anyone's guess, but what we do know is that prices will drop in the future.
Unless you really need inventory to sell, I would avoid sending any cards in at $22. If PSA's recent trajectory is any indication, a more cost-effective option should be available relatively soon.
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