Even in the era of the launch angle and obscene exit velocity, hitting 500 career home runs in the MLB is still an impressive, rare feat, and watching Miguel Cabrera finally reach that milestone this week was a special treat.
Cabrera is just the 28th player to ever cross the 500 home run threshold, doing so at 38 years old. And with two more years left on his contract, there's a good chance Cabrera could crack the top 20 of the all-time home run list too before it's all said and done.
Good for him! But because MLB fans are a stat-obsessed bunch, we immediately have to ask ourselves: who's next?
The next closest to the mark is Tampa Bay's Nelson Cruz, who sits at 443 homers at 40 years old. Barring a pretty impressive feat of physical stamina over the next 2-3 seasons, even as a DH, it would seem likely that Cruz comes tantalizingly close to 500 but likely won't cross it.
The other two most obvious names closing in are Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout. Stanton, 31, has 334 home runs and Trout has 310 career home runs at just 29 years of age. Health will be the only thing stopping these two from hitting 500 – and for Trout, the sky's really the limit on how many he can hit in the MLB if he stays on the field.
Next up is Bryce Harper, who has incredibly already spent a decade in the Majors. Harper is just 28 years old with 255 home runs; he's a great candidate to one day get to 500.
After that, it becomes a complete guessing game as to who will have the longevity and good fortune to play two decades. So among the game's many young stars, who could one day join this exclusive club?
Right off the bat (pun absolutely intended), Fernando Tatis Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. come to mind. Both are just 22 years old and have already proven to be prolific home run hitters. With long MLB careers ahead of them, these two budding superstars should have no problem getting to 500.
Truthfully, the only other name that immediately jumps out is Atlanta's Ronald Acuna Jr. (maybe it has something to do with the Jr. in your name…), who already has 105 home runs at just 23 years of age. Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to a torn ACL in July, meaning he could miss the start of the 2022 season as well. But Acuna Jr. was already putting together the early makings of a Hall of Fame career, and if he comes back at full strength, one would expect it to continue.
There's a reason why so few MLB players have ever hit 500 career home runs – it's just not that easy. Even some of the most prolific home run hitters of their time have failed to get there because it requires so much more than just that wonderful innate ability to park a ball over the fence. Tatis Jr., Guerrero Jr., and Acuna Jr. – along with Trout, Stanton and Harper – possess everything needed to get there. But we've seen how seasons – or careers – can get derailed by injury or struggles at the plate.
One other player is an intriguing possibility for 500 home runs: Joey Gallo. Now that he's likely going to spend the rest of his career in a Yankees uniform, hitting home runs over that short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium, Gallo could potentially get there. For his all-or-nothing approach, Gallo actually has a great eye at the plate to match his prodigious power; he currently sits at 149 career home runs at just 27 years of age. It'll be a long shot, but not impossible, especially as he likely settles into a full-time DH role down the road.
There's still nothing quite as captivating in sports as the home run; no other statistic in a game that features an ever-expanding source of them has anything close to its mystique. The home run maintains a complicated relationship with MLB fans these days, but there's no denying its magic, from a rookie's first trip around the bases to an aging veteran's career-defining moment.
The countdown to the next member of the 500 club is on.
Follow Us
Subscribe