The National League East saw a new champion in 2018, as the Atlanta Braves arrived to contention sooner than anticipated to snatch the crown from the Washington Nationals. Consequently, the teams in the division have been among the most active in the big leagues this offseason.
The New York Mets drew first blood by acquiring Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz from the Seattle Mariners. Then the Nationals responded by awarding left-hander Patrick Corbin with the richest contract given to any pitcher in this free agent period. And last Thursday, the Philadelphia Phillies made a big splash by trading for J.T. Realmuto, one of the best catchers in baseball.
The division seems to be fairly winnable for these three clubs, though a certain megastar right fielder that remains unsigned could tip the balance towards the Phillies or Nationals before the beginning of Spring Training games.
But with Bryce Harper still unemployed, the NL East could be up for grabs. Let's take a look.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves have been fairly cautious during this offseason. They made a low-risk, high reward play in signing Josh Donaldson to a one-year deal that could pay big dividends. Atlanta also signed former franchise stalwart Brian McCann to replace Kurt Suzuki, and brought back Nick Markakis.
But Atlanta's strength resides in their young stars, notably 2018 NL Rookie of the Year Ronald Acuna Jr. It would not be a surprise if Acuna became a 30-30 player this year given his combination of speed and power.
Second baseman Ozzie Albies has a similar skill set, though he posted just a .696 OPS as a left-handed batter versus a .908 clip batting right-handed. A more disciplined approach from the left side of the plate could make Albies a superstar.
And, as always, Freddie Freeman continues to prove that he is one of the very best first basemen in the league.
How will the rotation stack up? Mike Foltynewicz was a bona fide ace last year, posting a 2.85 ERA and 9.9 K/9. Can he follow it up?
Kevin Gausman was lights-out after moving to Atlanta from Baltimore, but will he be able to sustain this success? What about the young guys like Sean Newcomb and Touki Toussaint? Can they live up to their promise.
These rotational questions, along with the growth of young bullpen arms (a unit that the Braves did little to address in the offseason) could determine how far Atlanta will go this season.
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies owner John Middleton made plenty of headlines in November when he said the team would possibly be “a little stupid” in spending money in the offseason.
The team has made notable moves, including last week's deal for Realmuto. But they have hardly thrown caution to the wind by blowing away Manny Machado or Bryce Harper with big-money deals.
Instead, the Phillies have made upgrades in other areas. They signed David Robertson and added Jose Alvarez in the bullpen, along with James Pazos and shortstop Jean Segura in a deal with the Seattle Mariners. They also signed Andrew McCutchen to add another run-producer to the outfield.
Segura in particular gives the Phils speed and hitting at the top of the order, he should be the perfect table-setter for Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco and Realmuto.
The bullpen is extremely deep, with the new additions fitting in well alongside Seranthony Dominguez , Hector Neris and Pat Neshek.
The one concern is the starting rotation. Aaron Nola posted the highest WAR among all big league pitchers and certainly deserves every penny of his four-year, $45 million extension that he got on Wednesday.
But aside from Nola, things are somewhat shallow. Jake Arrieta collapsed after the All-Star break while posting a 7.19 K/9. Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez are all very young, but all three struggled mightily last season. They need to take large steps forward if the Phillies hope to win now.
Philadelphia seems resigned to going with this rotation as is, and given the deal for Segura and his asking price, Machado seems to be out of the cards. Harper is still in play, and signing the slugger to a long-term deal could be the move that puts the Phillies over the top in the division.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals won 15 fewer games in 2018 as their starting rotation imploded due to injuries and poor performances, while the bullpen continued to be a thorn in the organization's side.
And yet, Washington is in a terrific position. After signing Corbin to a six-year, $140 million deal in December, the Nationals have arguably the most lethal top three starters in the league… when healthy.
Max Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of this generation, and if Stephen Strasburg is healthy he is as effective as any in the bigs. Throw in the lefty Corbin, and the Nationals have every chance in the world.
The Nats also plugged holes in their bullpen by signing Kyle Barraclough and former St. Louis Cardinals standout Trevor Rosenthal. Those two alone should give Washington the kind of late-game setup options they have sorely lacked in recent years. And closer Sean Doolittle is as good as any in the league.
General manager Mike Rizzo also made key upgrades at catcher and second base. He acquired Yan Gomes from Cleveland and signed Kurt Suzuki for added depth at the backstop, then made a very smart low-risk gamble in free agency by signing Brian Dozier.
Even without Bryce Harper, the lineup has plenty of production. Anthony Rendon is one of the most underrated hitters in baseball, and Juan Soto is a budding superstar. Trae Turner continues to ascend the ranks of shortstops when healthy, and Dozier gives the infield added pop and speed.
Toss in fellow speedsters Victor Robles and Adam Eaton in the outfield (plus Michael A. Taylor platooning), and this team could run wild.
Do not be surprised if they reclaim the division in 2019.
New York Mets
The argument could be made for the Mets as the most active team this offseason. New general manager Brodie Van Wagenen has been aggressive in pursuing players that can help the team win now, showing a willingness to take on Robinson Cano's huge contract while simultaneously offering Yasmani Grandal big money before getting Wilson Ramos at a discount.
Taking on Cano's deal seems shaky, but the Mets have room on the payroll and he is one of the best second basemen in the league even at 36 years old. Not to mention, the Mets managed to land the MLB saves leader, Diaz, in the process. Diaz, by the way, is just turning 25 this March. Not bad.
New York also brought back Jeurys Familia to be the setup man, which should pay big dividends as Familia showed good effectiveness in that role with the Oakland Athletics. Justin Wilson also signed to a two-year deal, and with Seth Lugo in the mix, the Mets have a number of late-game arms.
Amed Rosario must draw more walks and get his OBP well over .300, but he has a lot of promise and will be surrounded by veterans on the infield, including double-play partner Cano and another free agent signing in Jed Lowrie.
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The outfield has plenty of depth, though it is hardly ideal for New York to start Juan Lagares or Keon Broxton every day. That said, Jeff McNeil could play his way into a spot, he'll platoon at the very least. Even if Yoenis Cespedes does not return, this is a solid group.
Brandon Nimmo was quietly one of the best outfielders on baseball (4.5 fWAR, higher than Andrew Benintendi), and Michael Conforto posted a 120 wRC+ despite seeing a slight decline in 2018.
But, as per usual, the Mets' strength should be their starting pitching. Not much else can be said about Jaco deGrom's historic season, but did you know that Zack Wheeler was one of the best pitchers in the majors in the second half? Wheeler went 9-1 with a 1.68 after the All-Star break, and figures to be an essential ingredient to New York's success.
So too will Noah Syndergaard, who healed up enough to make 13 starts after the break. If Syndergaard can closer to 200 innings this season, the Mets will have three capable innings-eaters at the top of the rotation, which bodes very well.
For all of their struggles, the Mets actually went 38-33 in the second half last year. Did they add enough pop to take some of the load off their rotation? Cano and Ramos are certainly big additions in that regard, and if prized prospect Peter Alonso is as advertised, the Mets could very well possess the firepower necessary to put them over the top.
Miami Marlins
Unfortunately, not much can be said of the Marlins. They traded away the last two National League MVPs (Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich) in the same season while also jettisoning Marcell Ozuna and, most recently, Realmuto. Really, this whole rebuild may have started in earnest with the tragic death of Jose Fernandez.
The good news for Miami? Brian Anderson had a tremendous rookie season, and Sandy Alcantara looks very promising as the future of the Marlins rotation.
Lewis Brinson desperately needs to rebound and prove that the Yelich trade was not a total disaster.
Jorge Alfaro is no Realmuto, but he could blossom as an everyday catcher in Miami. And Sixto Sanchez may not be in the league for a few seasons, but acquiring him was another step in the right direction for a Marlins team that simply needs to stock the farm system with talent.
Projected team records and finish:
- Nationals, 91-71
- Braves, 89-73
- Mets, 85-77
- Phillies, 85-77
- Marlins, 58-104
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