The NBA is currently seeing a league-wide increase in scoring through the All-Star break of the 2018-19 season.
From players like James Harden putting up video game numbers on a nightly basis to teams nearly scoring a combined 300 points in certain games, offense in the NBA is as prolific as it has been in some time. The points per game average for all 30 teams comes out to 110.7, over four points higher than last season's average of 106.3. For comparison's sake, the average only rose one point from the 2016-17 to 2017-18.
Several factors have contributed to the increase in scoring, but a few seem to stand out. The continued embrace of the three-point shot, an uptick in pace, and new rules all show concrete evidence for an ever changing, ever evolving NBA landscape.
More threes than ever
The three-point shot has become the weapon of choice for several teams over the last few years, and it's come with great success. For years it was said that “jump shooting teams don't win championships.” The last few seasons have actually proven the opposite to be true.
Golden State has put together a roster of some of the best shooters in the league, all at different positions on the floor. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson could go down as the two greatest shooters in the history of the game, and their teammate Kevin Durant may not be that far behind when it's all said and done. New addition Demarcus Cousins is adding a reliable outside shot to his offensive skill set, and though he hasn't shot well this season, Draymond Green has shown an ability to be dangerous from three if he is left open.
Every team can't be the Warriors (for starters, no team could have a starting five that would rival Team USA), but they can at least attempt to emulate the formula that's brought them so much success. The Rockets were among the first teams to truly embrace the three pointer as their primary form of offense, electing to all but ignore the mid-range shot in favor of a high volume of inside shots and threes. The new, analytical strategy proved to be very successful last season, as Houston finished with the best record in the NBA and ended their season one game away from an appearance in the Finals.
The three pointer seems to be more than just a trend, especially this season. For the first time ever, the league-wide average of threes taken per game is over 31. With teams launching all these outside shots, some of them are bound to go in. That leads to higher scoring averages and higher scoring games, all around the NBA.
Embracing the pace
The 2018-19 season has also seen an increase in pace. If it seems like the game is moving faster than it usually has, that's because it is. The influx of more and more athletic players means that more teams are willing to get out and run in transition. This leads to more shots and therefore more points. Some of the younger teams in the NBA are playing some of the fastest basketball, which shouldn't be surprising given the youthful flair of their rosters. Among the league leaders in pace (with their average ages listed) are the Atlanta Hawks (25.5), Sacramento Kings (24.8), and the Los Angeles Lakers (25.9). All three of those teams have average ages under 26.5, which is the league average.
As the league gets younger and faster, it seems that the increased pace of play may correlate with the success of the teams who choose to embrace it. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Memphis Grizzlies, teams headed for the lottery, are 29th and 30th in pace respectively at this point in the season. The Bucks and Warriors, both leaders of their conferences, are in the top 10 for pace.
Time will tell if this trend continues into the playoffs, but for now, the teams that play fast look like they're playing to win.
Rule changes
Finally, the last major component to the increase of NBA scoring has been a change in certain rules.
The so-called “freedom of movement” rule has been the biggest culprit for the new scoring totals, as offensive players have more room to operate than ever before. With more freedom and more space on the court, offenses can seemingly move around as they please, leading to more scoring opportunities and opportunities in high-percentage areas. Defensive players no longer have the ability to lean on or grab offensive players attempting to move off the ball, as they are more likely to be called for a foul after the rule change.
Another change to the rulebook that has affected the scoring average is the decision to shorten the shot clock after an offensive rebound. Previously, teams who got offensive rebounds would be rewarded with a full 24-second reset of the shot clock. This gave teams the opportunity to fully run their offenses and look for the best possible shot. Now that the clock only resets to 14 seconds, what we've seen this season is more shots immediately following or shortly after offensive rebounds.
As teams score more points, so are individual players. James Harden is currently leading the NBA with an astounding 36.6 points per game average. If he keeps scoring at this same pace, that average would be the highest for a scoring champion since Kobe Bryant in the 2005-06 season. An average of 36.6 points per game would also mean that Harden would have the eighth-highest scoring season ever, trailing five seasons by Wilt Chamberlain, one by Elgin Baylor (in which he only played 48 games), and one by Michael Jordan.
The scoring that we're seeing could be here to stay, as all of the determining factors look to be part of the direction that the game of basketball is heading in as a whole.
This could be the beginning of a new revolution in scoring, and a new era of the NBA.
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