The Los Angeles Angels enter the 2019 Major League Baseball season with a white elephant in the room. That white elephant got bigger when the San Diego Padres signed Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300 million deal. Days later, Bryce Harper agreed to his 13-year, $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. Two megastars, two massive deals, and a warning shot to the Angels that they may lose their biggest star in outfielder Mike Trout for nothing in two years.
Trout will get his chance to break the bank following the 2020 season. The Angels have less than two years to make a decision on Trout or risk losing him for nothing. Moreover, will Trout even want to re-sign with the Angels after failing to win much of anything for a decade? Can Los Angeles even afford risking holding onto him?
The solution is clear: unless the Angels have magically built a contender for the 2019 season, it's time for them to bite the bullet and trade Trout.
The Pujols Effect
Los Angeles made a myriad of poor contract decisions early in Trout's career. The biggest mistake proved to be the 10-year, $240 million contract with Albert Pujols in 2011. He signed with the Angels as a 32-year-old first baseman with all the warning signs that his best years were behind him. Pujols failed to bat for .300 or drive in 100 runs for the first time in his career during his final season with the St. Louis Cardinals. He had also dealt with numerous nagging injuries in the years prior to signing with the Angels.
Pujols has never lived up to his contract. The structure of his contract makes the Angels' problem even worse. Los Angeles front-loaded the deal leaving them on the hook for $87 million for the next three years. Pujols's deal has played a major role in limiting the Angels' ability to sign marquee free agents throughout the last seven seasons, and it will only get worse as he finishes his career.
The only possible saving grace would be Pujols retiring, but I doubt that he will step away. Pujols has hit .245 or less in three of the last four seasons and never over .268. He could have seen the writing on the wall at any point and retired. Pujols simply keeps hanging on, which means we can't count on him giving the Angels a break before 2021.
Why does Pujols matter?
The Pujols Effect matters because that contract buried the Angels for years, along with the deals for Josh Hamilton and C.J. Wilson. Pujols remains the only one of those three under contract, but his failure to produce long-term has hurt the Angels the most. The club needed him to perform if it was going to contend at any point in the last seven seasons. Pujols and Trout were meant to form the nucleus of the Angels lineup for a decade. Instead, the Halos have been stuck with his contract serving as an anchor on the entire payroll.
The Angels have been forced to spend on other offensive weapons to make up for Pujols's failures. The pitching staff has also suffered with the lack of available funds. Combine the tight budget with a weak farm system, and the Angels have earned their struggles in the last decade.
If the Angels and Trout reach a deal on an extension, it's safe to say that it will likely be worth close to $400 million over a decade. Trout will be 29-years-old when he signs that contract. What are the odds that he will still be one of the best players in the league even five years into that prospective deal? The Angels could be sentencing themselves to the same fate as they did with Pujols. If Trout fails to live up to that deal, then the Angels will likely spend the next decade stuck in the same obscurity they've have been in since 2010. Los Angeles shouldn't take that risk without some insurance.
Retooling the Halos
The Angels once boasted the deepest farm system in MLB. Less than 10 years later, the Halos' minor league roster regressed into one of the league's worst. It's taken a couple of years, but the Angels have finally replenished the farm system – to a degree. There is still plenty of work to be done. Trading the league's best player to the highest bidder has the potential to remake the entire franchise. Moreover, by moving Trout this year, it will maximize his value. The Angels will get far less by waiting a year to trade him.
Let's be honest. The idea of Trout in another uniform is sickening. Trout is by far the best player in the game. He's a homegrown Halo, who fans would love see spend his entire career with the club. Also, the Angels are more than capable of paying him what the contract he'll want in 2021. Pujols will come off the books one year later and that will open up millions of dollars that can help pay Trout and a supporting cast.
There is also good reason to believe that Trout will not follow in Pujols's footsteps. He'll sign an extension at a younger age, and he's been healthy for much of his career. Keeping Trout in an Angels uniform will provide stability for the club as it sorts out its stadium issues. He'll keep the team respectable on the field.
However, trading him this season can put the Angels in position to compete long-term both through the farm system and added flexibility with payroll. The short-term pain could lead to long-term success.
One final reality
There is also one other potential positive for both the Angels and Trout. If the Halos do this right, then it's possible that they could be in play for Trout to return via free agency in 2021. It's hard to believe that a young, talented Angels roster wouldn't be attractive for Trout. Imagine the Angels presenting a contract for Trout to return home with the talent to compete long-term. Right now the franchise is stuck in neutral. Trading Trout can change all of that.
Yes, there are no guarantees that the trade will pan out. Moving the greatest active player in the game could turn out to be a complete failure. But the Angels can't afford to let him go for nothing in 2021, and that's what will happen if they remain on the path they are on now. The club doesn't have the talent to compete this year, and the current payroll structure has it limited for next year.
Take the risk and put the club on a path to success. Trade Trout in 2019, and reload for the future. You never know. We might just see him wearing Angels colors again in 2021.
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