Since 2002, Tom Brady has been a fixture in the NFL as a top quarterback both in real life and in fantasy football.
However, after a subpar year with the New England Patriots and an offseason that saw him move to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, fans are asking: is his reign of dominance of the league over?
The short answer is YES.
The long answer is this: you cannot be a top fantasy QB while being a purely pocket quarterback in this league dominated by dual-threat play-callers.
According to Fantasy Pros, Brady has not been in the Top 10 of the league in fantasy football since 2017, when the only two dominant dual-threat quarterbacks were Russell Wilson and Cam Newton — who were one and two in fantasy that season.
In 2018 Brady was 14th in the league. That season, Patrick Mahomes led the league in his first full season of play, a campaign in which he won the MVP. Out of the Top 10, four (Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Wilson and Dak Prescott) had dual-threat capabilities.
In 2019, Brady improved by two spots, finishing 12th in the league. However, the reign of the dual threat was cemented, with every quarterback in the Top 10 (with the exception of Aaron Rodgers) being able to scramble. While Josh Allen is debateable, he did have eight rushing touchdowns that year.
This trend and the impact it has on fantasy is simple: in standard leagues, rushing yards are worth more than passing yards — with rushing and receiving yards being one point per 10 yards whereas passing yards are one point per 25 yards. Also, passing touchdowns are only worth four points, as compared to six for rushing touchdowns.
These two things add up over a season. With that said, no matter how good of a pocket quarterback you are, you can't keep up with the added scoring that the scramblers are able to put up. It's like the difference between a power hitter and a contact hitter in baseball — no matter how consistent the contact hitter is, he will never be able to keep pace in RBI with the power hitter because the power hitter can guarantee RBI with home runs.
In closing, the era of Tom Brady as a dominant, Top 10 fantasy football pick is over. The game has just moved beyond him and he is one of the guys that are being left in the dust.
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