Two teams from the South Division face off as the Arlington Renegades visit the Orlando Guardians. It's time to continue our XFL odds series with a Renegades-Guardians prediction, pick, and how-to watch.
The Renegades enter this game as losers of three of their last four. Even though they are 3-4 overall, they still sit second in their Division and just one game behind Houston for the top spot. They get a chance to catch Houston this week, facing the 1-6 Orlando Guardians. These two teams faced in week three of the season, with Arlington walking away with a 10-9 victory. In that game Paxton Lynch and the Guardians missed a one-point conversion attempt from the two-yard line, resulting in the one-point loss. The Guardians have covered the spread in each of their last three games, but all three were underdogs.
Here are the Renegades-Guardians XFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Renegades-Guardians Odds
Arlington Renegades: +1.5 (-105)
Orlando Guardians: -1.5 (-115)
Over: 42.5 (-110)
Under: 42.5 (-11)
How To Watch Renegades vs. Guardians
TV: ESPN2
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 4:00 PM ET/ 1:00 PM PT
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Renegades Could Cover The Spread
The Renegades are struggling to score this year. Since their 22-20 win over the Vegas Vipers in week one, they have not scored 20 points since. Luis Perez is now on the roster, and he may replace Drew Plitt, who was placed on injured reserve on April 3rd. In his nine games this year, Perez has thrown for 906 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions. This could potentially be an upgrade at QB for the Renegades, as Plitt has struggled at times this season, with only three touchdowns and four interceptions.
Being able to move the ball through the air may also help their running game. De'Veon Smith is third in the XFL in rushing with 278 yards on the season, but his 3.1 yards per carry make it clear the defenses are keying on the run game of the Renegades. If Perez can show he can run the ball, or even be a threat with his legs, that may open up room for Smith to get a few more yards per attempt.
The reason the Renegades have won this year has been their defense. Donald Payne is second in the XFL in tackles, and Will Hill is tied for 10th. It should be concerning though that a defensive back is one of the team leaders in tackles. The Renegades are also second in the XFL in interceptions with eight on the season. They have brought two back to the house for touchdowns as well. Their six fumble recoveries rank them fifth in the XFL, and their combined 14 turnovers are good for fourth in the league. If the Guardians can get a few turnovers and an offensive spark from Perez, they will win this game.
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
The Guardians have only one win on the season, and yet they are favored in this game. The Guardians were blown out in three of their first four games, with the only close one being their 10-9 loss to the Renegades in week three. This fueled a change at quarterback, as Quinten Dromady took over the duties from Paxton Lynch. In his first game, he brought the team within three of the Vipers. Then last week, he threw for 328 yards and three touchdowns to give the team their first win of the year. That upset was over the previously undefeated DC Defenders.
Dormady did not just do it through the air against the Defenders, but also on the ground. He ran eight times for 22 yards but scored three times on the ground in the game. Off his recent performances, Dormady ranks second in the XFL in passer rating and has formed quite the duo with his leading receiver. Cody Latimer, the former second-round pick of the Broncos, has been playing tight end and wide receiver for the team. Latimer has 488 yards and four touchdowns now on the season. He also has eight receptions of longer than 20 yards, which is tops in the XFL.
When Latimer is not open, Charleston Rambo is picking up the slack. Rambo started the season slowly, with just 55 yards in his first three games. Since then, he has had five receptions over 20 yards, all four games over 50 yards receiving, and two touchdowns. He has become a top target for the new Guardians quarterback. The Renegades struggle to score, so if this offense gets going, they will come away with a two-game winning streak.
Final Renegades-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The last time these two teams faced it was a one-point game. There is a major difference between that game and this one. Paxton Lynch is no longer QB1 for the Guardians, and this Guardians team is completely different under Dormady. Still, the Renegades may be getting the same boost, as they install a new quarterback this weekend. Perez can do some great things, but in just his first game with a team that just acquired him, it may take some time. The Guardians make it two in a row with this one.
Final Renegades-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Guardians -1.5 (-115)
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